Roulette prediction, how early is too early?

It depends on what do you want and expect form predictions.

For that reason is the best to have a clear understanding of what is really happening on a roulette wheel while the ball is spinning.

I prepared a small chart with ball rotation times.

First column shows different ball times in milliseconds until the ball makes a full rotation, second column shows what would be time of next ball rotation and third column shows the difference in between two ball rotations.

To get ” t2” time of second rotation a solution for solving quadratic equation was used where

“D” represents how many pockets per second the ball slows down and

“t1” is the time of first ball rotation.

D/37 which in this example is nothing more than a percentage 5 pockets from full rotation of 37 pockets. For example if you want to calculate it when the ball slows down 7 pockets per second on a 38 pockets wheel you would use 7/38.

Bottom line is that you do not need to understand calculation but only to understand results from the chart. For an advantage player the most important part is the time difference in between ball rotations. The greater it is the easier it gets.

The chart includes samples from 500ms to 1100ms.

I deliberately excluded slower ball rotations. The reason for it is that right after about one second per rotation on most wheels the ball deceleration may rapidly drop. For the same reason it is not recommended to predict in last 3-4 ball rotations since the differences in between rotations may be reduced. AP player wants to predict when the difference in between ball rotations is the highest. Reason why the ball deceleration drops is that the ball during spinning is actually touching vertical edge of the wheel. Later on the ball leaves the vertical edge and drops more on the bottom track, it is affected by slope on the wheel and even radius on which the ball spins may be slightly reduced.

Using the quadratic equation after the 1200ms ball the next rotation may be 430 ms different when in reality due to previous explanation it may be only 200 ms, which is actually a smaller difference then 285ms from previous example. In such case rotation with highest difference 1100ms to 1385ms we call “the knee point“ and during the spin it is easier to identify it.

On a single or only two dominant diamond wheel as previously analyzed ratio for this rotation would be 20>>265 . Or we can say due to inaccuracy in clocking from 28.5 spins, 2 spins will be predicted badly and 26.5 will be predicted well. This ratio is the highest and the best for AP player, on the chart is circled in green. If an AP player is predicting at this stage during the spin they have the highest gap for error and also can isolate particular diamonds to predict.

Next on the graph circled in blue is when the ball time is about 900 ms/r with difference to next ball rotation of 129ms. This is probably the fastest ball where the player would still have reasonable winning ratio, and some chances to isolate particular diamonds.

Circled in red is the fastest ball with a time of 500ms per rotation.

Here ratio is 2 against -0.2. It means the error will not be only as some percentage in between 2 ball rotations but significant amount of errors will be across 3 ball rotations. We can’t really have -0.2 since the difference of 18 ms always exists , many spins will be predicted in that range but by 20% more may be predicted in different ball rotations.

Accuracy of prediction across 3 ball rotations even may look bad in reality it doesn’t have to be so bad.

Considering that length of rotations is only 0.5 sec therefore and remaining time to calculate how much rotor moves will be wrong by same amount of time. If the rotor moves 10 pockets per second, difference of 0.5s means + or – 5 pockets error. Understanding that at this ball sped range even predicting particular ball rotation is inaccurate definitely there is no point of predicting particular diamond hits.

This picture may be interesting.

With blue color are marked ball rotations and with green the time gap for which that rotation can be accurately predicted. Circled in red is a rotation where the tolerance for an error is the highest. Compared to another point circled in yellow it is not much wider but here it’s important to notice that next to the yellow mark are and longer ball rotations with therefore if the prediction is in different rotations error is greater.

This is important to understand before then I explain next step, predicting more common and realistic wheel conditions.