Understanding roulette wheel and exploiting possibilities


#21

Roulette prediction, how early is too early?

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It depends on what do you want and expect form predictions.
For that reason is the best to have a clear understanding of what is really happening on a roulette wheel while the ball is spinning.

I prepared a small chart with ball rotation times.
First column shows different ball times in milliseconds until the ball makes a full rotation, second column shows what would be time of next ball rotation and third column shows the difference in between two ball rotations.
To get ” t2” time of second rotation a solution for solving quadratic equation was used where
“D” represents how many pockets per second the ball slows down and
“t1” is the time of first ball rotation.

D/37 which in this example is nothing more than a percentage 5 pockets from full rotation of 37 pockets. For example if you want to calculate it when the ball slows down 7 pockets per second on a 38 pockets wheel you would use 7/38.
Bottom line is that you do not need to understand calculation but only to understand results from the chart. For an advantage player the most important part is the time difference in between ball rotations. The greater it is the easier it gets.

The chart includes samples from 500ms to 1100ms.
I deliberately excluded slower ball rotations. The reason for it is that right after about one second per rotation on most wheels the ball deceleration may rapidly drop. For the same reason it is not recommended to predict in last 3-4 ball rotations since the differences in between rotations may be reduced. AP player wants to predict when the difference in between ball rotations is the highest. Reason why the ball deceleration drops is that the ball during spinning is actually touching vertical edge of the wheel. Later on the ball leaves the vertical edge and drops more on the bottom track, it is affected by slope on the wheel and even radius on which the ball spins may be slightly reduced.

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Using the quadratic equation after the 1200ms ball the next rotation may be 430 ms different when in reality due to previous explanation it may be only 200 ms, which is actually a smaller difference then 285ms from previous example. In such case rotation with highest difference 1100ms to 1385ms we call “the knee point“ and during the spin it is easier to identify it.

On a single or only two dominant diamond wheel as previously analyzed ratio for this rotation would be 20>>265 . Or we can say due to inaccuracy in clocking from 28.5 spins, 2 spins will be predicted badly and 26.5 will be predicted well. This ratio is the highest and the best for AP player, on the chart is circled in green. If an AP player is predicting at this stage during the spin they have the highest gap for error and also can isolate particular diamonds to predict.

Next on the graph circled in blue is when the ball time is about 900 ms/r with difference to next ball rotation of 129ms. This is probably the fastest ball where the player would still have reasonable winning ratio, and some chances to isolate particular diamonds.

Circled in red is the fastest ball with a time of 500ms per rotation.
Here ratio is 2 against -0.2. It means the error will not be only as some percentage in between 2 ball rotations but significant amount of errors will be across 3 ball rotations. We can’t really have -0.2 since the difference of 18 ms always exists , many spins will be predicted in that range but by 20% more may be predicted in different ball rotations.
Accuracy of prediction across 3 ball rotations even may look bad in reality it doesn’t have to be so bad.
Considering that length of rotations is only 0.5 sec therefore and remaining time to calculate how much rotor moves will be wrong by same amount of time. If the rotor moves 10 pockets per second, difference of 0.5s means + or – 5 pockets error. Understanding that at this ball sped range even predicting particular ball rotation is inaccurate definitely there is no point of predicting particular diamond hits.

This picture may be interesting.


With blue color are marked ball rotations and with green the time gap for which that rotation can be accurately predicted. Circled in red is a rotation where the tolerance for an error is the highest. Compared to another point circled in yellow it is not much wider but here it’s important to notice that next to the yellow mark are and longer ball rotations with therefore if the prediction is in different rotations error is greater.

This is important to understand before then I explain next step, predicting more common and realistic wheel conditions.


#22

All is good , but here is one nuanse - ball deceleration per second is not constant in the same spin and if we have some ball speed exactly the same in next and in all remaining rounds ball decelaration per second can varry quite much even if spins are very close each other in time - so conditions is about the same. So if we get say 1000ms one ball round then on next round ball deceleration can varry quite big so next round after exact 1000ms in first round one time can be say 1200 but in other it can be 1100 or other. So we never can know enough exact how long ball will travel till dropp and which distance it will makes. Of course time and distance varies in some frame, but from… till…


#23

The point of examples was not to prove if the ball deceleration is linear or not, but what to expect for time differences in between of two ball rotations. You can see that distances in between rows of data is not a length of ball rotation as we usually use, but it’s constantly 100ms. You can look the chart and get information for example when the ball is 900 ms , the difference in between rotations 130 ms. If playing a wheel where the diamond getting 50% of hits it means you have a gap of 65ms to get it right. If predicting same at 1 sec/r ball it would be 95ms.

Stefano wrote referring to FF program and capabilities to have multiple predictions;

“You may have heard a roulette computer that gets predictions anytime in the spin by assuming the ball deceleration is linear is a great thing. After all, someone sells such a device so they publish rubbish to sell their product.”

From education Stefano has only high school finished but regardless in luck of his education it is a matter of logic, and common sense. For that reason he can be understood only as someone attempting to discredit such program for whatever personal reason he has.

If the FF computer assumes the ball deceleration is a constant how on earth the FF predicts correctly at any moment during the spin. It would be possible only if the computer predicts differently than what he assumes; or if the ball deceleration is linear. Reality about FF program is [hide]that it uses ball rotation samples and predicts accordingly whatever the ball deceleration is. The FF has multiple prediction simply because it’s very accurate so it can.

On the video the computer predicts for example 26 0,0,0,0,32 it is only plus or minus one pocket difference for predictions in six different moments during the spin. Such small difference only shows how beautifully the program follows the ball deceleration curve. One pocket error is possible even if predicting at same moment during the spin. One pocket deviation is not much for all errors during clocking, calculating ball and rotor movement and on top of it for defining curve how the ball decelerates.

What you are saying is correct;

of course the ball may differently travel during the spin. AP player accepts it, the point is that there is always what is happening with the ball most of the time and to exploit it. Also to which point during the spin consistency happens most of the time. Because of such reasons I made the chart to explain up to which point during the spin is worth predicting particular wheel conditions. If the quality of wheel is so bad and from the moment when the ball is 1000ms/r the ball can travel so differently until it drops than obviously there is no point of predicting such wheel.

We can predict only based on data we get during clocking and if there is a change after that moment we can’t do anything. I did a research for example spins where the ball is 1000 ms /r and what will happen if the next rotation happen to be for example 1180 or 1200 or 1220. There was no difference , while 1180 is the fastest ball it still can drop earlier than 1220 ms ball or vice versa. My findings are same as Edward Thorp got in his research.

Let’s say we have a wheel where most of the time after 1000 ms the ball next rotation is 1200ms. Then the ball travels mostly 6 rotations. Mostly 6 rotations could mean 60% 6 rotations until it drops, 20% ¼ of rotation shorter and 20% ¼ extra. After some time due to some changes on the wheel it may change that the ball mostly makes 60% 6.5 rotations. In such case instead of 1000-1200ms as the most common rotation after 1000ms we may find 1195ms.

To use 5 ms difference on 2 rotations to make adjustment for additional half rotation (+ rotor movement) may be 30 pockets difference it would be a suicide. If first rotation you clock 2 ms shorter and next one as it is 1200 it would be already 4 ms error since for next one its expected 1198. So only 2ms wrongly clocked ball rotation would create ~25 pockets error.

Even one ms accuracy in ball clocking wouldn’t be good enough to make such adjustments. If predicting same spin 10 times each time it would be predicted differently. On top of it process to define adjustment would be close to imposable since we can’t just say for 5ms difference just add 1/2 rotation, since the real value is unknown and it depends on many factors. To be defined the player would need thousands of spins clocked with extreme accuracy.
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#24
Let’s say we have a wheel where most of the time after 1000 ms the ball next rotation is 1200ms. Then the ball travels mostly 6 rotations. Mostly 6 rotations could mean 60% 6 rotations until it drops, 20% ¼ of rotation shorter and 20% ¼ extra.
Here we come to that about what i talk. Lets say we set FF and think that ball will travell 60% 6 rotations until it drops, 20% ¼ of rotation shorter and 20% ¼ extra. But we not know what will be really in future , say near future when conditions are still exact the same. And maybe we set as 980 and next 1170 but we get say three spins as exact 6 full rounds after, but really in future, in long term this setting will produce only 30% 6 rotations until it drops, 20% ¼ of rotation shorter and 50% ¼ extra, what can give us very random results when we will play, and that is because of bad setings - not in the pick of speeds range which give us mostly exact 6 rounds remaining , but in the edge of range but we only randomly get good distances when we done setting.

#25

If talking about Acrobat setting is not so wide and if there is a wrong one most likely the system will tell you about it. After setting few spins you should always look what is happening when predicting.


#26
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I wish to conclude something here.
Someone may disagree with me but he might have a problem convincing me in to something different.

According to Quadratic equation after 1200ms ball next rotation would be 1630ms. Nice 430ms difference. That’s where the knee point is happening and where the VB player can on the easiest way spot the particular ball rotation during the spin.

The theory that at some point roulette ball rapidly decelerates crating the knee point is actually not valid even we often interpret it that way.

What is actually is happening is that the ball decelerates normally with about same rate but after that moment the deceleration drops due to the ball drop at the sloped track. When exactly during the spin the ball drops, it depends is the knee point noticeable or not. If it is happening after 1.2 sec it will be noticeable.

To understand better why the ball deceleration drops the best explains this video. A coin operated black hole as you can find in shopping centers. You can see that coin loses altitude but gains on the speed. Similar but less obvious is happening on a roulette wheel. 8)


#27

The most important skill for an advantage player is a skill where he can identify prediction number that relates to the outcome of the spin. With older style of wheels, there are easier conditions (deep pockets, less ball bouncing, rapid ball deceleration) which in combination with one or two dominant diamond almost guaranteed an edge and winnings.

With newer lower-profile roulette wheels many things previously explained will not be so significantly noticed. More often you’ll face the wheel with a slight tilt with three dominant diamonds, smaller ball deceleration and the wider ball jumps distribution. All together even for a very skilled roulette player, may look confusing. For that reason, statistical analyzing of the wheel before play is required.

Previously you could read why an advantage is created with a single dominant diamond or 2 dominant diamonds.
Same applies when the wheel has three dominant diamonds with an exception that there are and bad things in between main dominant diamonds which creating an advantage.

For example, with only two dominant diamond it doesn’t matter for us if the ball to the end of spin makes 6 or 5.25 rotations since it will produce same results. Since the ball is hitting only two diamonds, such ball doesn’t stop after 5.5, or 5.75 rotations. On a tilted wheel with three dominant diamonds if we observe the middle one the ball may stop at after 5.75 rotations as well.

So let’s look what could happen if you are trying to predict 6th ball rotation before the end of spin on a wheel with reasonably slow rotor speed. To understand this part you can go to the previous post and watch the video. http://rouletteplace.com/index.php?topic=1481.msg12340#msg12340

If the ball travels:

5 rotations, your prediction is wrong by full rotation, that means an error of about +12 pockets.

5.25 rotations you prediction is wrong by ¾ of rotation, the ball dropped at different diamond (-27 pockets shifted) the prediction will overlap with a number where the ball drops since at that moment the rotor is in -9 pockets are making it in total -36.

5.5 rotations you prediction is wrong by ½ of rotation, the ball drops at -18 pockets from expected diamond, since during half rotation and rotor moves -6 that will create about -24 or we can say +12 pockets error.

5.75 rotations you prediction is wrong by 1/4 of rotation, the ball drops at -9 pockets, the rotor position is -3 pockets. Therefore the ball will fall -12 pockets in front of the predicted number.

6 rotation, it is a perfect prediction

From this, you can see that if the ball stops after 5.5 or 5.75 taken prediction number will not match with outcome. If the wheel has 3 dominant diamonds, then 5.5 can be ignored since the ball will not be hitting that diamond. In such case distribution of hits across main diamond we observe may be higher than on remaining 2 diamonds.

On the same way, we can look what will happen if the ball makes more than predicted 6 rotations.

6.25 the ball drops at the diamond + 9 pockets, at that moment rotor is in position +3 therefore the prediction will be wrong by +12 pockets.
6.5 the ball falls at the diamond + 18 pockets, at that moment rotor is in position +6 consequently, the prediction will be wrong by +24 pockets.

6.75 the ball drops at the diamond + 27 pockets, at that moment rotor is in position +9 therefore the prediction will be wrong by +36 pockets which make the predicted number correct.

Seven the ball drops at the diamond + 37 pockets, at that moment rotor is in position +12 therefore the prediction will be wrong by +12.

Here is everything grouped:

5 bad
5.25 good
5.5 bad
5.75 bad
6 good
6.25 bad
6.5 bad
6.75 good
7 bad

And here it is with only 3 dominant diamonds

5 bad
5.25 good
5.75 bad
6 good
6.25 bad
6.75 good
7 bad

5 x
5.25 xx
5.75 xxx
6 xxxx
6.25 xxx
6.75 xx
7 x

With” x” I marked the amount of hits for each diamond a player may get after prediction.
From 17 spins in total 8 is predicted reasonably well. That would give to the player 47% chance of predicting correct ball drop point.
It’s important to notice here that right next to good prediction when the ball drops after6 rotations on each side are possibilities that producing bad results (5.75 and 6.25). Since it is closer to targeting prediction, I gave it probability to get more hits.

5 xxx
5.25 xxxx
5.75 xxxx
6 xxxx
6.25 xxxx
6.75 xxxx
7 xxx

If the accuracy of prediction is a bit worst as on this chart it will give the player same advantage. Here from 26 spins, he would get the correct result 12 times which makes it 46%. For that reason when playing a wheel where the very narrow time frame is needed to predict particular diamond if we do not have extreme accuracy and if physical ball track and ball it self is not perfect (which in reality never is) it doesn’t matter much if the prediction is not so accurate. That lets us predict earlier during the spin with almost same results, and we have to accept some spins badly predicted.

For better understanding let’s say computer predicts with “method 1” previously explained here.

To predict when the ball will hit only particular diamond you may set it to very narrow time frame, so it predicts let’s say only when the clocked ball is 1200-1250 ms per rotation.

50ms is not much, even if timing errors during ball clocking are ignored just because of imperfections on the ball or ball track the ball still may end up differently. So the final hit rate may look like something like this.

5
5.25
5.75 xxx
6 xxx
6.25 xxx
6.75
7
From 11 spin five are predicted well making it 45%
Because of narrow time frame there, I no hit at other places as 5.25 and 6.75 that would help to increase the advantage. We can see that even something as playing on average every 4the spin where the ball matches very narrow criteria wouldn’t help especially if the predictions are earlier during the spin.

The FF Acrobat roulette computer program can be set how wide area of prediction will be, but more importantly it also makes for each ball drop point we play different prediction.
While here spins wit hit at 5.75 and 6.26 hits are all predicted wrong with the Acrobat some of them will be predicted correctly, for some the system will give a warning and of course some could be predicted wrongly. Such approach can rapidly increase the amount of correct prediction especially if predictions are done later during the spin.

If the player can predict where the ball drops 50% of times, does he have an advantage?

Of course, he might have an advantage, but it is also defined by the law of ball jumps distribution.
If the ball doesn’t jump at all or it jumps only a few pockets, and if he plays nine pockets sector it means every second time he will get it right therefore and his advantage over casino will be 100%. For every two spins, he would place 18 chips in total and win 36 chips. Of course, the ball jumps more widely therefore and his advantage will be reduced.


#28

Wat’s up with the hidden content??? :frowning:


#29

Lol its gone heehee :smiley:


#30

very interesting topic …
thanks forester


#31

[quote=“doctoritcata, post:17, topic:804”]Very true statement about the single dominant diamond wheels not always playable.

Have an automated wheel in my neighborhood with something like 80-85% of the spins hitting particular diamond and still the early NMB and fast rotor(alternating from spin to spin between ~ 1.5 and ~2 sec per rotation) makes it near impossible to obtain an edge.Still had some medium success with DS on carefully selected rotor speeds though.[/quote]Care to share how? I’ve got a similar machine where I play, approx 80~85% of the time, clockwise spins hit the same diamond (1 of 6), you can bet until the rotor has performed 3 revolutions, the rotor speed seems constant (2.5 ~3 sec). The drop zone is predictable, yet the scatter is sometimes huge. Been racking my brain if there is any way to exploit this, but am coming up blank.


#32

:slight_smile: I have had touch bet wheels like that where most of the dealers spin the wheel at about 4 sec which is perfect with little scatter most of the times and then I get a dealer or two that spins 1,5-2 sec wheel speed and the scatter is ridiculous.

On an automated wheel though, if it is costant it would be a good idea to study the scatter. Draw up a scatter chart. What seems chaotic might (not necessarily) have some order when looking at the data. That is what I would do if I were you. Then you still use VB2 but allow for the scatter according to your chart.


#33

Just watch the video demo of the FFA in action, and i understand the FFV is just relaying the same information through vibration.

Do you receive the information as quickly using the FFV?

And,

Is the vibration signal you receive (the numbers) translated into a simple code using for example, 2 pulses, then a space, then 4 pulses, to identify number 24?

Is that how you interpret it? at present this is the only method i can think of.

P.S Apologies just like to apologize in advance for any silly questions i might ask.


#34
Do you receive the information as quickly using the FFV?
FFV and FFZ indicate prediction on different way. They vibrate or zap when the ball is over predicted number. In the case if you didn’t see it they zap in next rotation again. After that they continue zapping each time the ball is passing point where the system expects it to drop.
Is the vibration signal you receive (the numbers) translated into a simple code using for example, 2 pulses, then a space, then 4 pulses, to identify number 24?

That would be to slow and not very clear to understand way. Let’s say ball rotation is 1 sec per rotation and the rotor travels 13 pockets per second. Since they are in opposite direction the ball is passing 37 +13 =50 pockets in a second. Predicted number could be 0-36 pockets form moment of last click so the longest wait time for zap until ball crosses predicted number would be 37/50=0.74 seconds. Averaging 0.37s, it’s faster than a talking computer pronouncing the number.


#35

Nice thread


#36

Thanks,

8688 views but not many comments


#37

[i][i][i]Thanks,

8688 views but not many comments
[/i][/i][/i]

unbeleable theese many views,

About comments , should I give away for what i moved my ace ( am I drunk ?,
I write a… and always comes ace ) for many years ?

generally someone must be an idiot to tell here any finer points.

The principle of successful wheel and ball clocking is simple, but you must develop
abilities.
50% is know how and the other 50% are clocking and visual abilities.
Your brain must form models and build neuromuscular-end plates and that lastes some time
and training , training, training, an RC is a very good tool but not enough,
in the last time I doubt ,only to find a knee point is not enough.
I know because I am successful , and look for the scatter , scatter , scatter !!! and a bit more.

E.H.

the battle is at the tables, every day.


#38

LOL!!

The principle of successful wheel and ball clocking is simple, but you must develop abilities. 50% is know how and the other 50% are clocking and visual abilities. Your brain must form models and build neuromuscular-end plates and that lastes some time and training , training, training, an RC is a very good tool but not enough, in the last time I doubt ,only to find a knee point is not enough. I know because I am successful , and look for the scatter , scatter , scatter !!!!!!!!!!!!!! and a bit more.

Really agree with you E.H. finally it is just not to push the button and receive the result and make a bet, really there is smth. MORE!!

regards


#39

Hi :-* :-* :-* :stuck_out_tongue:

Forester is nevertheless my favorite,

again I am very,very surprised about these many views , IMHO
the English spoken roulette community is very big in the world.

More than 8.000 views and 1% buys his FF , I would indulge.

Let’s make a deal he sells and me makes an introducion, not cheap,
all over the world. success ensured . :-*

E.H.


#40

Thanks for a great topic Forester.

What i feel you forget to mention is that the ball does not make the deceleration at the same spot on the ball track.
It is different each time for each new spin.
This has to do with dealers release point and the chaotic behavior during the first 700 ms before ball start rolling on the ball track.

It also have to do with what you use as your main focus pin when clocking the wheel to get acc time frame.
Is about to pick the weakest spot to get ball end up within 0.25 0.50 0.75 …

I have many times been thinking that you could determine where the ball will smack into a deflector most of times, if you could isolate where the ball divide and hit knee point on the ball track with the exact same time intervall from A to B.
Same spin force.
You probably increase the acc if you pick the weakest deflector as you main focus pin.

My opinion.