Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2


#61

[quote=“uchimata, post:60, topic:239”]That would seem to be parent of one opposite louburache, or a opposite fivonachi, that’s dont work.
A lot of people in the history try to make a lot of ways to bet roulette, mathematical way is not the key.
All the people that play “PROFECIONAL” know the decrease or progresionate the bet, or the bank roll, ““don’t work in long term””,
Still more playing odds, no one win in long term playing odds, if some one wins in long term playing odds, i can see that.

The money management is not the key to win roulette, flat bets every time , and stay in the top of the peack is the key, find the best pattern to play, the money is secundary.

Best regards.[/quote]

Uchi, we have math edge because we have tracked the wheel and know our numbers all together win 5% to the total wagwed(1/36).

We can win playing mathemetically as the bank does every time.

The bank has the 2.7% and waits, the more bet the more the bank win just because it has the mathematical edge.

We are at the same shoe as the bank is, the counterpart is that we do not have its bankroll.

So, we must decide to invest a bankroll, that is to say 10k and manage to survive the dispersion until math does what we studied it would do.

BR


#62

No uchimata, what forester shows is the basic Kelly betting with a payout of 1:1.

There is mathematical proof that if you have an edge above the house you will be better off money wise playing with progression like the Kelly. Many professional players mostly Black Jack advantage players is using Kelly betting. Also a few roulette players, although its not so common in roulette as far as i know anyway.


#63

Kelly betting for single numbers.

It IS a bit complicated for most people in the beginning.

The formula goes like this:

f* = x%/A

x% = Your estimated edge
A = payout, usually 35 for single numbers

An easy example is if you have an estimated edge of 35% and is playing 1 single number.

f* = 35%/35 = 1% of your bankroll

Imagine your edge on each of the numbers in your 8 number pocket is 23 %, roughly 1:28. It also means you lose 7 and win on 1 number in the 8 pocket sector on a hit. Looks like this then:

(35 - 7)/8
A = 28/8 = 3.5 It will then give the formula
f* = 23%/ 3.5 = 6.5 %

So you will be betting 6.5% of your bankroll of say 5.000 = 325/8 = 40 on each number in a 8 pocket sector.

You can then make a list that looks like this all number rounded down to playable bet sizes because you probably can`t bet like 33.75:

5000 = 40 pr number (320 pr bet)
4680 = 35 pr number (280 pr bet)
4400 = 35 pr number (280 pr bet)
4120 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)
3820 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)
3580 = 30 pr number (240 pr bet)

Etc…
Etc…

If you keep an eye on your bankroll, you will pretty easy be able to figure out the bet size. Don`t forget to make the scale upwards too, in case you are winning. :slight_smile:

If you find the bet sizes too steep, you might wanna bet only “1/2 a Kelly”

If you play a 5 number sector with a 10% edge, you should be able to remove the numbers and put your own into the equations and get the appropriate values.


#64

Ok Kelly, we must decide what BR to invest and in how many part we split it.

10k/4=2500 per day. You could loose a couple of days.

For instance we have a 11 number sector with 5% edge.

We must play 150 on them(1.5%).

We can recalculate the bet every 3 to 5 spins rounding up.

Regular Kelly in case of loosing, 1/2 Kelly on the winnings.

What about applying the formula for each part of the BR? 2500x1.5%= 4 on each number?

We would save every part of our BR, we win less.


#65

I guess its a temper question, because a full Kelly is not so extreme. Its the same fraction of the bankroll one is losing in the losing streaks and vice versa in the winning streaks. It might be a good starter plan with a diversification in 4 parts until the project is running and some experience and confidence is building up, along with a growing bankroll.

PS, im not sure switching between full and half Kelly is a good idea, one might get whipsawed for a while and would lose bankroll slowly because the winnings wouldn`t quite match the losers. In some scenarios it might work, but in the reverse scenarios it would backfire.

Kelly betting on single numbers has different nature than 1:1 chances because there will be long losing streaks and sometimes “clumps” of hits and because you almost always have to raise your bet after a win because of the 35X pay out, those clumps produces A LOT of money and because an edge also gives more hits than expected its a positive cycle.


#66

That is about how I actually play, my betting in 2-3 hours play starts with of 5-10 units and it ends up with value of ~100 units.


#67

[quote=“toby, post:61, topic:239”][quote=“uchimata, post:60, topic:239”]That would seem to be parent of one opposite louburache, or a opposite fivonachi, that’s dont work.
A lot of people in the history try to make a lot of ways to bet roulette, mathematical way is not the key.
All the people that play “PROFECIONAL” know the decrease or progresionate the bet, or the bank roll, ““don’t work in long term””,
Still more playing odds, no one win in long term playing odds, if some one wins in long term playing odds, i can see that.

The money management is not the key to win roulette, flat bets every time , and stay in the top of the peack is the key, find the best pattern to play, the money is secundary.

Best regards.[/quote]

Uchi, we have math edge because we have tracked the wheel and know our numbers all together win 5% to the total wagwed(1/36).

We can win playing mathemetically as the bank does every time.

The bank has the 2.7% and waits, the more bet the more the bank win just because it has the mathematical edge.

We are at the same shoe as the bank is, the counterpart is that we do not have its bankroll.

So, we must decide to invest a bankroll, that is to say 10k and manage to survive the dispersion until math does what we studied it would do.

BR[/quote]
Please answer this:
If you play odds, and for example play red, but in the reds have 3 negative biased numbrs, do you think 2.7% is the edge of the house?
the wheals are not totaly random as you think Or yes?
What provocate the loosing raws?
best regards
Uchimata


#68

[quote=“Kelly, post:65, topic:239”]I guess its a temper question, because a full Kelly is not so extreme. Its the same fraction of the bankroll one is losing in the losing streaks and vice versa in the winning streaks. It might be a good starter plan with a diversification in 4 parts until the project is running and some experience and confidence is building up, along with a growing bankroll.

PS, im not sure switching between full and half Kelly is a good idea, one might get whipsawed for a while and would lose bankroll slowly because the winnings wouldn`t quite match the losers. In some scenarios it might work, but in the reverse scenarios it would backfire.

Kelly betting on single numbers has different nature than 1:1 chances because there will be long losing streaks and sometimes “clumps” of hits and because you almost always have to raise your bet after a win because of the 35X pay out, those clumps produces A LOT of money and because an edge also gives more hits than expected its a positive cycle.[/quote]

Kelly:
Do you think is better the bank roll management?
or is better to know where to bet to avoid lousing strikes?
Do you think that kind of management of bankrall have and edge in long term?
always if you have a good analysis of a wheal, and you know that wheal have a good conditions to play, Why the loosing strikes are some times so long? What provocate this?

uchimata


#69

Uchi, dispersion is inevitable.

We have to stand until it calms and get our edge.

Playing even money with 3 negative biased numbers increase the house edge.

Loosing raw is a natural process.

The bank has it too and wait, its BR is huge, it does not car about money management, we do because we only have some thousends of chips.

Where I play, wheels are not random.
Where I play it is not total ramdom.


#70

I think a mix of skill in VB or bias play also need a proper money management.

There were an example of an ex croupier in germany who learned VB and had ALL skills including placing the bets with lightning speed without the race track because as a dealer he knew all numbers and neighbours inside out.

He managed to almost go broke because he just kept betting bigger and bigger as he was winning, but didn`t lower them when he hit the losing streak. Bet for bet, he had a huge edge, but because of poor money management he managed to almost lose his bankroll in 3 bad days.

As i recall it, they said he was THE school example of how NOT to be able to win despite a huge edge over the house.


#71

Kelly my bets on all numbers are not equal.
Problem with reducing bets is that after rain sunshine comes.

Example, I may play 2 hr and from $1000 make $7000

At that stage I may play $300 per spin. Then it may start pain, alike losing 10 spins. It is not easy to give back something as $3000. After that experience I can reduce bets to ½ which would be $150 but it also means that when I win it will be smaller.

I did have many examples as that, I kept going few more spins and if I get hit in center of sector I recover all losses in single spin.

Sure there were cases where bets overcome money that I want to play, especially if I do not have much time. Then just play last few spins harder like 20% of money I have.

And anyway what is a bankroll. ;D
It may sound strange question.

I may come to table with $500, if I lose it I go to FT and get another $500 or $1000.

It couldn’t be money you have with you since sometimes I want to play but have with me only $200. Still start with $50 per spin. Which means if after 4 spins I did not win I have to get more money.

Is it money where player feells comfortable to play with?

It is different with advantage play.
Mathematical system players follow the system and for that they require particular amount of money. When they lose they start from the start.

But advantage player doesn’t have procedure; because system never tells him stop playing except if he notices that there is no more advantage.


#72

Forester, I do not know how you make 7000 with 1000. In years of player the only way to do it frequently is applying dangerous progressions.

When you try to predict a single spin is when you go to bankrupt, my experience.

I 've never tried VB.


#73

Easy, if scatter is not not much troubling, if there is no spinners, and if dealer doesn’t stop me.

Many times I made nice money from $50 or $100.
That all it takes if few spins at start the ball behaves.
After making few hundreds profit, hit few spins a bit harder, if there is no bad luck (with inappropriate ball jump) I will win. Then repeat the process. Sure sometimes things go wrong so I lose what I previously profit. I may slowly profit $1000 and lose it in 5 spins or make it in shorter time to few thousands. If I lose it I start from the start. Winning more is asking for trouble. Sometimes the game is so bad and I can’t move much from start.

I’ve seen everything as the best, getting 30 hits on 6 pocket sector from 33 spins, to 15 hits missed by 1-2 pocket from played 8 pockets sector during 20 spins.

You need to understand that if ball behaves I do have huge advantage.


#74

Advantage players DO have procedures for money management. Its a bit different than the ordinary system players because the edge is positive, but they still don`t wanna play the bad streaks with high bets, because there is no telling when the streaks will end.

Keeping the bets high on the bad streaks because after rain comes sun, resembles buying stocks every time they drop 10%. If you buy 100 shares at 100 dollar, 100 shares at 90 dollar and 100 shares at 80 dollar, you only need the price to go back to 90 dollar to break even. But it could also ruin you and is considered one of the worst things to do in stock trading.

Only on holiday i would play without a proper staking plan. If i have found a good wheel, i will decide to play it 1000 - 1200 spins before i give it some days rest. Before i start to play i have a betting plan for the bet sizes as the game proceeds.


#75

Ok, some one recomend progresions or decretions as a good money manegement?
Best regards
Uchimata


#76

Ok I made a simple but interesting calculator for experiment[attachimg=1].
It is attached.

Simulation of playing 7% of bankroll on 8 numbers is at the left side (PLAN A).
So bets increase and decrease by amount we have.

On the right is the same situation, we start with 7% but when we increase bank we increase and bet (plan B). We do not change it until it increases again.

The difference is that plan B profited 572 and plan 493.
During simulation I have marked 11 losing strikes.
During eleven loses plan A made smaller loses, but when winning started it won less.


#77

You can always find a pattern that outperforms the Kelly betting, but the math behind why its the most effective is in the wikipedia link. Im not enough math boy to explain it in laymans terms. Also, there is a safety part embedded in the Kelly staking that keep the nerves a little bit calmer because your stakes is always the same fraction, where on the opposit, a progression or a staking that keeps the high bets will tear your nerves apart when things go down the drain. No doubt is a Martingale on plein numbers very effective for a good while, but we all know how we feel when things DON`T work out. Especially when the bets are going up and the winnings are going down.


#78

Yes, I only made it to compare what would be the difference.
Sure, more risk = more winnings.


#79

[quote=“Forester, post:78, topic:239”]Yes, I only made it to compare what would be the difference.
Sure, more risk = more winnings.[/quote]

CONCLUTION :
MORE RISK MORE WINNINGS, AND MORE RISK MORE LOOSINGS OR NOW?

IN A FEW WORDS, DON’T WORK , OR YES?

THE PROBLEM IS “”""""""“LONG TERM”"""""""""""
AND NO ONE SAID WHAT TIPE OF PROGRESION WORK IN LONG TERM, IF SOME BODY KNOWS WHAT TIPE OF PROGRETION ELIMINATE THE HOUSE EDGE IN LONG TERM, PLEASE TELL ME.

BEST REGARDS.
UCHIMATA


#80

[quote=“uchimata, post:79, topic:239”][quote=“Forester, post:78, topic:239”]Yes, I only made it to compare what would be the difference.
Sure, more risk = more winnings.[/quote]

CONCLUTION :
MORE RISK MORE WINNINGS, AND MORE RISK MORE LOOSINGS OR NOW?

IN A FEW WORDS, DON’T WORK , OR YES?

THE PROBLEM IS “”""""""“LONG TERM”"""""""""""
AND NO ONE SAID WHAT TIPE OF PROGRESION WORK IN LONG TERM, IF SOME BODY KNOWS WHAT TIPE OF PROGRETION ELIMINATE THE HOUSE EDGE IN LONG TERM, PLEASE TELL ME.

BEST REGARDS.
UCHIMATA[/quote]

We’ve got the edge.