Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2


#41

[quote=“toby, post:39, topic:239”]Uchi and forester, do you just flatbet or do you use another money management?

If you flatbet on a small profit table you need a huge BR and wage to collect a good amount.

For instance, a sector of 12 numbers come on average 1/35,5 instead of 1/37. You have +5,4. But, only +1,38 over 1/36.

You can win on the table but you need the highest chip to place to win 0.50 chips times 12 per a cicle of 36 spins(+6 chips per 36 spin cicle on average).

Other scenario, your 12 numbers come 1/34,5. What is the best way to win? Options: flat, any progression, other?

What is the best goal to achieve per hour? 10, 20, 36 units?

BR[/quote]

Biased wheal system, is based in “”"“the good playable conditions of a wheal”""", not in the progresions you inploy to win, if you want to win in long tern in roullete, never use progresions, “”""“in any system”"", if you need progresions in a system to overcome the house edge, this system fails in long term.
Please “READ AND UNDERSTAND"· the CHARTS, i present.
If you don’t find a good wheal to play, “””“don’t play”.
35/1 36/1 37/1 40/1 is les dan random wheal, that profit is not generative. Again, read and undertand the basic of the system and his charts, to obtain a good wheal.
Don’t think in sicles of 36 spins, thats no mater in this system, you need to play hundreds or thousand of spins, more you play, more you win.
Whith this kind of systems, you overcome the random, and the house edge,by the bad function of a wheal, or mechanical flaws.
""""""""""""“ALL THE WHEALS ARE NOT PLAYABLE”"""""""""""""
You need 1000 chips to play this system in a good conditions wheal, that’s the amount you need to aboid the bank’s risk of ruin.
best regards
UCHIMATA


#42

I would still prefer the old fashioned way:

  1. Detect possible biases on the wheel.

  2. Note how the ball act in these areas during number tracking.

  3. If the bias also appears in the possible areas, continue to track but watch out for number ring turns which is a common way to trick a bias player. It only takes 2 - 3 minutes to turn the number ring 1/8 of a wheel. It doesn`t eliminate the bias, but the player will be playing the wrong numbers.

Once the bias is established, run the numbers in a number strenght sheet like this one:

If the biased number shows weakness with a falling curve, simply skip it until it starts rising again. If you have dates along with the tracked numbers, you might be able to spot maintenance intervals and cleaning procedure in the number strenght sheet. Just make sure that the number ring is NOT moved.

A number is expected to appear 27.02 times pr. 1000 numbers, the sheet shows how the chosen number is performing with a running count each time a number is punched in.

The analysed number here, appeared for a while to be biased, but it disapeared after a while. The positive deviation above 27 was either spotted by staff or was a random fluke. The Chi Square never came close to the 55 benchmark for biases.


#43

Toby:
You don’t win all the days in long term strategies, you overcome the house edge in hundreds and thousand of spins, that inbolve a lot of days.
Don’t think in short plays, think in long term plays.
For example, in visual balistic play, because the behavior of a wheal is not good all the days, you lost some days, but you win more days than you loose, thats the way the good systems work.

For example:
in a tipe “A” wheal if you play 1000 spins, the spected edge is +72 net plains, if you play whith $1.00 dollar chips thats represent $2592.00 dollars.
Best regards
Uchimata


#44

[quote=“Kelly, post:42, topic:239”]I would still prefer the old fashioned way:

  1. Detect possible biases on the wheel.

  2. Note how the ball act in these areas during number tracking.

  3. If the bias also appears in the possible areas, continue to track but watch out for number ring turns which is a common way to trick a bias player. It only takes 2 - 3 minutes to turn the number ring 1/8 of a wheel. It doesn`t eliminate the bias, but the player will be playing the wrong numbers.

Once the bias is established, run the numbers in a number strenght sheet like this one:

If the biased number shows weakness with a falling curve, simply skip it until it starts rising again. If you have dates along with the tracked numbers, you might be able to spot maintenance intervals and cleaning procedure in the number strenght sheet. Just make sure that the number ring is NOT moved.

A number is expected to appear 27.02 times pr. 1000 numbers, the sheet shows how the chosen number is performing with a running count each time a number is punched in.

The analysed number here, appeared for a while to be biased, but it disapeared after a while. The positive deviation above 27 was either spotted by staff or was a random fluke. The Chi Square never came close to the 55 benchmark for biases.[/quote]

Thats true Kelly, this system have a lot and,simple countermesures, whith this system you need to study all the days the wheal, the secret is this:
If a “TIPE A” wheal in 3 days of play,the wheal convert in “B” , “C” or random based in the “”“table charts”"" ,this wheal is repair by the casino,""""“BECAUSE A WHEAL NEVER COME BACK IN HIS CATEGORY”"""" in the moment your chart tell you the wheal come back, you need to stop the play, and qualify again to see the wheal have the same good conditions in other pockets.
If you note the casino turn the rings, is time to search an other wheals in another casinos, because the casino know what are you doing.
Best regards
Uchimata


#45

Thanks Kelly, it happens that some possible or certain biased dessapear for some hundread of spins but when they come back they pay off(if they are really biased).

Good idea to leave the ones that sleep, some bias questions nobody knows what the cause is.

Uchi, as you know, is not easy to find a 1/30 table.

Sometimes a 1/35 is the unique chance.

I take the advise to flatbet, you just win because of phisics and math.

Playing on 10 to 12 numbers takes a 1000 BR, we know.

What about % of winning per hour? Here comes the $ matter.

It is the same to win 30 units of 1 in 3 hours=30 than 10 units of 3 in an hour?

BR


#46

A bias player is easyli spotted because he plays the same numbers everyday, day in and day out. Its not because it is ones “lucky number” anymore. Combined with VB play, it becomes more diffycult to detect because sectors will be played in more random patterns.

Also, tracking right and left spins some times do amazing things in the bias tracking.

In Hittfeld, Germany, there were a wheel that produced “rollers” on the number ring every 2 or 3 spins, and it had a fret that were slightly higher than the others. In a case with many rollers, a higher fret will absorb a lot of hits and affect the outcome a lot. This is how it looked like in Hittfeld.:

As you see there are great difference in the performance of the 2 numbers although they are placed just next to each other.


#47

[quote=“Kelly, post:46, topic:239”]A bias player is easyli spotted because he plays the same numbers everyday, day in and day out. Its not because it is ones “lucky number” anymore. Combined with VB play, it becomes more diffycult to detect because sectors will be played in more random patterns.

Also, tracking right and left spins some times do amazing things in the bias tracking.

In Hittfeld, Germany, there were a wheel that produced “rollers” on the number ring every 2 or 3 spins, and it had a fret that were slightly higher than the others. In a case with many rollers, a higher fret will absorb a lot of hits and affect the outcome a lot. This is how it looked like in Hittfeld.:

As you see there are great difference in the performance of the 2 numbers although they are placed just next to each other.[/quote]

This is randomnes phenomenum.
if you come to play the same numbers in long term you are coming to se the 18 is coming high and the 22 decrese.

Uchimata


#48

Toby I do not play that way, I only consider it as valuable theory that can win on long run.

There was somewhere charts where casino did test on one wheel where 3 numbers were biased. I think it end up that player who would play $25 on each number 8 hours per day for one month would profit about $150,000.

It means that each of played numbers if we look it as 9000 played spins come 290 times instead of average of 243 times. It is possible.

I don’t mind discussing something that might work even I will never use it.

But I still think that rotor speed and ball direction should be involved in defining bias.

Also I do not know how player would now if something have changed so for next month he doesn’t play with negative advantage.
.


#49

“This is randomnes phenomenum.
if you come to play the same numbers in long term you are coming to se the 18 is coming high and the 22 decrese.”

Not in this case Uchimata, the wheel was gaffed by some of the staff and 4 people were arrested. The bias was genuine and not even an accidental deformation but deliberately planted there. There were some news paper articles about it at the time. It worked particular well because of the many rollers where the fret caught the ball when it ran on the number ring and some of the staff knew that.


#50

[quote=“Kelly, post:49, topic:239”]“This is randomnes phenomenum.
if you come to play the same numbers in long term you are coming to se the 18 is coming high and the 22 decrese.”

Not in this case Uchimata, the wheel was gaffed by some of the staff and 4 people were arrested. The bias was genuine and not even an accidental deformation but deliberately planted there. There were some news paper articles about it at the time. It worked particular well because of the many rollers where the fret caught the ball when it ran on the number ring and some of the staff knew that.[/quote]

IF THIS IS THE CASE, I’M IN AGRE WHITH YOU KELLY. is a provocated biased. But in only one number? thats wear, if the staf are coming to provocate a biased, is better to provocate in at least 5 pockets.
Best regards Uchiamta
Best regards Uchimata


#51

Actually it affects 2 numbers. One in a positive way and the other in a negative way. The same phenomena you see in other biased wheels where some sectors donate hits to other sectors, resulting in a negative bias in the donator sector and a positive in the receiving sector.

I don`t think its very likely to see 2 numbers next to each other perform like a mirror out of pure random as 18 and 22 did in the scam, but its possible, just with a very very low probaility.


#52

That cannot be possible. If there is a new spinn every four minutes, one only puts 325(60/4)830 = $270,000 on the table during that month. $150,000 would represent over 50% profit ratio, which cannot be a seriously meant figure.

“9000 played spins”?
That represents full time job for about a quarter of a year. Who does that kind of things? It is infeasible. Most dayjobs (including that of the croupier!) pay, without risk, more than any roulette strategy possibly could do, which requires such a huge amount of labour to pull through.


#53

Some wheels are faster. 20-30 spins per hour

300 spins in 10hr , 3,000 in 10 days , 9,000 in a month.
Only estimation.

Win with $25 makes $875

To make 150,000 player needs 171 extra hit, but because it is 3 pockets played he needs 57 for each pocket.

257 hits would be needed to stay even, to win that money player would need 257+57=314 hits. If he used $100 ships, to make same money he would need extra only 14.25 hits per pocket which makes 285.

Expected hits per pocket are 243.


#54

Ok Uchi, you flatbet, but what about money management.

BR=1000x1

numbers to play=10x1(total waged=10)

The wheel you play has a 5% edge

1st case you win 100 units

2nd case you loose 100 units

Do you keep on playing 10 units per spin or raise or lower your bet?

What about Edward Thorp’s way of playing? He always play the % that has the edge so the ruin is remote.

BR1000 you play 50
BR900 you play 45
BR1300 you play 65
BR 400 you play 20


#55

[quote=“toby, post:54, topic:239”]Ok Uchi, you flatbet, but what about money management.

BR=1000x1

numbers to play=10x1(total waged=10)

The wheel you play has a 5% edge

1st case you win 100 units

2nd case you loose 100 units

Do you keep on playing 10 units per spin or raise or lower your bet?

What about Edward Thorp’s way of playing? He always play the % that has the edge so the ruin is remote.

BR1000 you play 50
BR900 you play 45
BR1300 you play 65
BR 400 you play 20[/quote]

You never raise the bet, you need a good conditions wheal, " THE GOOD CONDITION OF THE WHEAL IS THE ONES THAT OVERCOME THE HOUSE EDGE"""" not the money manegement,
but i play 200 chips one day if i loose i go home, if i win i stay,¿why?
Because the random afect the biased wheals too.

best regards
uchimata


#56

Yes Uchi, but the 2nd day you have 800 units to stand the same bet of 10 per spin.

You can just flatbet no matter what or you can lower your bet to minus 20% until the table do what we expect.

When you win 200, the next day you have 1200, you could wage 60 instead of 50, that`s the idea.


#57

The fastest growth of the capital when there is an edge is Kelly betting as decribed by Thorp and Basieux. The calculation looks tricky, but one can make a small staking plan that lasts a day or 2 and a larger overall plan as secondary reference.

The math behind why its the best.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

I will be back in 1 - 3 days with a practical explanation for the players.


#58

[URL=http://www.imagger.com/view/72426_RANDOM_PATTERN_EVOLUTION.jpg.html][/URL]

The sections marked whith thin lines, are micro games or micro sicles, that sicles have
a duration about 15 to 100 spins, thats not a law because random stablish his own limits,
all of us see in this conjuction of micro games is a big final game, and the behavior of random in long term,
composed to 36 micro games,if play 3 micro games every day, this chart is for 12 playing days,
If all of us note al the micro games have his own caracter, every micro game is diferent than the others, thats
magic of random, that afect all systems, included visaul balistic and computer games.
The micro games are small sicles , that’s micro games in long term create a big sicle of games.
The problems whit roulette playes is to think, random have only “POSITIVES PEAKS”, then the players come to
progresionate, or make money manegementes, to avoid bad raws. Thats the key to win in roulette, stay every spin in the
top of the chart, you don’t spect to win in every spin , that is totaly not true, but if you stay every spin in the top of the chart
is more provably to win in long term.
The matematicals don’t work in roulette, only the life positives patterns.
All that you want to fight is with the midle random edge, thats the famous 35/1.

BEST REGARS UCHIMATA


#59

As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), but the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of the bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.

It does make sense

bank played 100 20 80 16 64 13 51 10 41 8 33 7 26 5 21 4 17 3 13 3 11 2 9 2 7 1

Player starts with 100, and left colomn is his bank, right one is his amount of chips played. For even bets if he has 60:40 chance

So how it will look for 1:28 hit tate on 8 pockets sector?

If he continues doing it and plays 200 spins, makes some profit.
If anywhere during that 200 spins he loses 10 times in a row he will lose 90% of his money.


#60

[quote=“Forester, post:59, topic:239”]As an example, if a gamble has a 60% chance of winning (p = 0.60, q = 0.40), but the gambler receives 1-to-1 odds on a winning bet (b = 1), then the gambler should bet 20% of the bankroll at each opportunity (f* = 0.20), in order to maximize the long-run growth rate of the bankroll.

It does make sense

bank played 100 20 80 16 64 13 51 10 41 8 33 7 26 5 21 4 17 3 13 3 11 2 9 2 7 1

Player starts with 100, and left colomn is his bank, right one is his amount of chips played. For even bets if he has 60:40 chance

So how it will look for 1:28 hit tate on 8 pockets sector?

If he continues doing it and plays 200 spins, makes some profit.
If anywhere during that 200 spins he loses 10 times in a row he will lose 90% of his money.[/quote]

That would seem to be parent of one opposite louburache, or a opposite fivonachi, that’s dont work.
A lot of people in the history try to make a lot of ways to bet roulette, mathematical way is not the key.
All the people that play “PROFECIONAL” know the decrease or progresionate the bet, or the bank roll, ““don’t work in long term””,
Still more playing odds, no one win in long term playing odds, if some one wins in long term playing odds, i can see that.

The money management is not the key to win roulette, flat bets every time , and stay in the top of the peack is the key, find the best pattern to play, the money is secundary.

Best regards.