Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2


#21

Yes, that’s very true. The real scientific way of doing it, which the statistical results actually assumes is employed for their traditional interpretations to be genuinly valid. Doing it the other way around is scornfully dismissed as “data mining” by REAL staticians. But mathematical perfectionism isn’t always all that practical either.

I didn`t fabricate the sheet myself, so i gotta say i haven`t looked closer in the cell formula for the Chi. I can send you the cell formula for the Chi Square if its any help.
Thank you, but there is no need. I just use the chi2test()-function which is built-in in Excel. The difference is probably just about using the money versus raw pocket numbers.
PS: Yes you can get the numbers in most larger european casinos, but its far better to collect them by yourself because you can then seperate them in clock and anticlock spins.
Ah, yes. But maybe it is possible for one person to keep track of spin direction (and maybe ball change) on several wheels at the same time in a casino, if winning numbers are taken from official lists.

Anyway, I’m primarily interested in analysis of data in order to find drop zones and scatter distribution for use together with predictions made while the ball is spinning. That’s hard enough…

It is disheartening to realize how large samples of data are needed in order to achieve good statistical significance. And add to that how small fraction of the bankroll one must bet in order to avoid Risk of Ruin, and the initial dream om getting rich quick on predicting roulette suddenly seems to be harder than one would have thought from the beginning. Even with an edge over the casino, it still helps alot to be lucky too!


#22

You are on the right track. Yes 1 person can “easyli” monitor 5 - 6 wheels for bias, somewhat less if the purpose is to find a wheel for VB.

Usually when i do the tracking myself, i monitor as many wheels as possible for wheel direction and number and also note strike diamond. During this time i will check each wheel with different bias spotting tecknikes. At some point, 1 - 2 of the wheels will stand out as a wheel that might be worth playing because they are semi tilted and i will start tracking for VB conditions at those. I will still on and off track numbers on the other wheels, unless they appear with no bias.

And yes, if you try to find a biased wheel, find the bias FIRST and then start tracking numbers, preferbly in shifts because it is extremely boring and something i would rather pay someone else to do after i spotted the bias. Just collecting the numbbers blindly could easyli be a waste of time.


#23

Is there another way to find biased wheels but tracking spins?


#24

This post was irrelevant for the subject.
FG


#25

Is there another way to find biased wheels but tracking spins?[/quote]
Yes of course!

By looking for scratches, dirt, sound changes, wobbling rotors (made visable through light reflexes) and such hints which indicate less than perfect equipment quality.

Hasn’t this already been mentioned in this thread? Anyway, I found these ideas on this forum and I like them! If one is in a casino, then at least you can’t be worse off by choosing to play or study a wheel which looks like it might have a physical defect. It is more likely biased than the perfectly looking wheel.

Of course, if the most perfect wheel in the world leans a little bit, it will have a drop zone too. But leaning is impossible to see directly. However, many material defects are visable. It could be a great time saver to start studying wheels with visable defects, rather than just any wheel.


#26

The real biased wheals have the defect in the pockets,
the biased wheal that have the defect in the wood case, is noting view whith real biased, the wood case defect is good for visual balistic only.
The defect in the pockets generates hot numbers in long term.
The pockets defects consist:
1- one pocket more biger than other
2-one pocket more higer or shorter than another.
3-one pocket more soft or harder than another in the bounce
4- one pocket bad scruber.
5- the metal separators are more biger than another, or bad colocated, that generates a shock absorver, than anothers
but the real biased wheal have one or more defects like this in a sector of a wheal, don’t see one or two numbers that apear more times than the others, consentrate in sectors of numbers.

Another kind of biased wheal i see, is a bad valanced rotor,provocated for a desvalance of the pin of the torret or a desgastated bering, this problem provocate a woble in the rotor, that provocate a hot sector, because the ball falls in this area,influenced by gravity law, and the angle that the defect provocate in the rotor.
see this link:

http://www.grupojoker.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=478

THIS LINK HAVE THE TABLES TO CONSIDERATE IF A WHEAL IS A BIASED OR NOT.
THIS IS THE GARSIA PELAYO TABLES, A FAMOUS GROUP OF SPANISH THAT BROKE THE BANK IN SPAIN, LAS VEGAS, AUSTRALIA, GERMANY AND OTHER COUNTRIES, THIS IS A REAL STORY NOT FICTION, THE NAME OF THE BOOK IS:
""“LA FABULOSA HISTORIA DE LOS PELAYOS”"", THIS BOOK IS ONLY IN SPANISH. IS A GRAIT BOOK FOR ROULETTE PLAYERS.
HAVE A LOT OF INTERESSTING HISTORIES IN THE CASINOS WORD.

BEST REGARDS

UCHIMATA


#27

If I understand right table A represent hits to more then what is expected.

At the bottom there is 30,000 spins
And we get 966 hits
We should get only 811
To be equal at the table after 30,000 spins we need 833 hits

966-833=132
30,000/132=226

So we win every 226 spins amount that pays for win on one number.
If we play with $100 after about 8 hours we will win $3,500

Regardless that number comes more often we still may have 100 or even 200 spins that number doesn’t come. It would require $20,000 bankroll.

What if something happens and number start coming with negative SD? We will need thousands of spins to notice it.

It would be good if reason for bias is known so player will be able to notice the change just by observing instead of tracking thousands of spins.


#28

[quote=“Forester, post:27, topic:239”]If I understand right table A represent hits to more then what is expected.

At the bottom there is 30,000 spins
And we get 966 hits[/quote]

If you read again the table, you see is only nesesarily(in a lot of cases) only 300 spins to cualify a wheal is biased or not,(but more the better)

30,000 SPINS IS NOT NESESARILY TO PREDICT IF A WHEAL IS BIASED TO OBERCOME THE HOUSE EDGE.

please read again the tables, they have 3 parameteres,
1, random wheal
2,tipe A
3 tipe B
4 tipe C
every wheal have his category in this estatistical charts.

For example, this spanish guys said is better to play biased wheals that have 9 to 18 numbers whith this kind of defect, i tell is the best or beter play “SECTORS OF NUMBERS IN THE WHEAL” that is nesesarily to prevent largest bank rolls, I play this system in the MAGESTIC CASINO GUATEMALA and i broke the table, and the casino want to change machine, this machine give me 45 days of glory in this table, then the casino tell me, please never come again.
The bank roll required is 1000 units to aboid the bancarot.
200 per day if you win dont stop, if you loose 200 stop and come tomorow, WHY? because the random afect the biased to.
Something all the players want to unsertand is “”""“RANDOM HAVE LIMITS TO”

best regards
Uchimata


#29

Of course it would be better if all sector is biased.
So what does really “4 tipe C” represents?

And how can you from 300 spins know if the wheel is biased.


#30

[quote=“Forester, post:29, topic:239”]Of course it would be better if all sector is biased.
So what does really “4 tipe C” represents?

And how can you from 300 spins know if the wheel is biased.[/quote]

The inglish is very dificult to me sorry.

ok, this guys have proved in random number generators the patterns that a random wheal presents, in every test take 2000 spins and multiply by 2000, for example, if you have 100 spins you multiplicate 100*2000 =2,00000 study events, that indicates to you, 3 things, the behavior of a random wheal in “positives”,
THIS GUYS TAKE SEGMENTS OF 100 SPINS AND APLY 2000 EVENTS FOR EVERY 100 SPINS,
for example for the 1000 spins they have to do 2,000,000 events to study to make his statistical charts of the behavior of random and his tendence.
but the curios of the study is:
5% of the times (IN THIS 2000 PROVES in 100 spins)generats more beter paterns than the other 95%, this guys call this event “SOFT LIMIT” and in the 1% of the times have better enough patterns of biased, this guys call this event "HARD LIMIT"
then make categories for wheals in tipe “A” tipe “B” and tipe “C” and random wheals whih now one tendence.
this guys search weals that present the “SOFT LIMITS” TO COMING TO PLAY THIS WHEAL, or tipe “A” wheals that prsent good posibilities to win.
this people divide the wheals in categories,
for example:
he takes 1000 spins of a wheal and come to make a chart, and in this chart reveal that wheal have 65 positives, this wheal is cataloged than a “C” but if a wheal in 1000 spins generate 72 positives that wheal is good to study because present a tipe “A” wheal.
Please translate the link i send to your’s belive me is the better way to study biased wheal.

Best regards
Uchiamta


#31

Now I understand that I do understand.

What did he prove with RNG?
He can’t prove anything else then it is RNG if it is RNG.

How he multiply spins?

I tried to translate but I couldn’t understand much. :-[

Ok with RNG he only tested for deviation.
Then he defined limits where results under it will be classified as coincidences.
And table A consists of group of numbers that are coming more then often.

So after 30,000 spins 996 is actually a difference from expected 810 hits , on some group of numbers.

I think results should include ball direction and rotor speed as well.


#32

[quote=“Forester, post:31, topic:239”]Now I understand that I do understand.

What did he prove with RNG?
He can’t prove anything else then it is RNG if it is RNG.

How he multiply spins?

I tried to translate but I couldn’t understand much. :-[

Ok with RNG he only tested for deviation.
Then he defined limits where results under it will be classified as coincidences.
And table A consists of group of numbers that are coming more then often.

So after 30,000 spins 996 is actually a difference from expected 810 hits , on some group of numbers.

I think results should include ball direction and rotor speed as well.[/quote]

He make his test in random number generators, because the RGN, dont have any desviation, because is totaly random, the RNG don’t have ““FISICAL PARTS””, but have randomnes like the real wheals, he makes in RNG, to understan the limit of random patterns and his
behaviors.

How can multipy spins for test the randomnes of this group of spins?

For example he want 2000 test for every group of spins, if he want to study 100 spins, he spin 100 balls, 2000 times.
if he want to study 200 spins, he spins 200 spins 4000 times etc, etc, etc.
in every amount of spins he write the results and make his statistical charts and his desviation, then come to group the result and calculate the “SOFT LIMIT” in this group of events and the "HARD an the tipe “A”“B”“C”"AND RANDOM LIMITS.

The spected edge in 30,000 balls “TEORICALY” are 810 hits, but you don’t have this results ““real”, in a random wheal you have 126 hits “””""""“OVER THE EXPECTED EDGE LINE”"""""""" more the 810 spins, you have 810+126 = 936 hits in 30,000 spins in a group of numbers, for example in 15 biased group of numbers.
In a “A” table have 966 hits, more the 810 spected spins you have 810+966= 1776real hits in a biased wheal""""""" NOT THE SPECTED TEORICAL ,RESULTS PERFECTLY RANDOM YOU SPECT, THAT NOT EXIST.
Thats is thinking you have 15 biased numbers and you calculate this group of 15 numbers you have this results in positives, "“OVER THE SPECTED EDGE”“you don’t want to think in only one number, you want to think in group of numbers, because every ““pocket”” have his own inperfection, AND GENERATE HIS OWN BIASED, BUT IF YOU CALCULATE A GROUP OF IASED NUMBERS YOU HAVE THIS RESULTS.
He makes to a statistical to undestand behaviors of 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 group of numbers and his behavior and desviation, thats are to in the link.
if a wheal don’t present a tipe “A” SOFT LIMIT OR HARD LIMIT” LIKE THIS STATISTICAL CHARTS PRESENT IS BETTER TO DON’T PLAY, BECAUSE DON’T HAVE A BIASED THAT GENERATE PROFITS, if you study a machine and this machine presen tipe “B” or “C” behavors DONT PLAY .

The results don’t matter if you write the clock wise counter clock wise, change ball change speeds and intensity of balls, r chang deelrs, you are looking the “INPERFECTIONS AND BAD FUNCTION OF THE WHEAL” THAT PROVOCATE A BIASED, REMEMBER IS A MECHANICAL BIASED NOT A RANDOM BIASED, OR A BIASED PROVOCATED BY A DEELER, THATS ANOTHER KIND OF BIASED THAT INVOLBE RANDOMNES, NOT FISICAL DESPERFECTIONS.

I know the spanish is dificult to you as the inglish is dificult to me, but if you don’t understand someting about the charts or somethin relationate of this system , please ask me i’m glad to help you ore some one else, in my posivilities of my inglish.

BEST REGARS
UCHIMATA.


#33

This is an example to calculate a biased of a wheal:

[URL=http://www.imagger.com/view/200877_BIASED_WHEAL_STUDY_CHART.jpg.html][/URL]

This chart contain 300 spins

The spected line edge is in 8.33 ¿Why? because
300/36=8.33 all the numbers have 8.33 hits don’t have profits, al the numbers that have 9 hists or more have profits, and all numbers that have less to 8.33 hits is a looser numbers.

consentrate “ONLY” in the numbers that have 9 or more hits, that numbers are:
0,3,35,28,7,29,18,22,9,14,8,36,13,34,2,19,15,32

OK analize number by number
0=13 hits-8.33=4.67
3=11 hits-8.33=2.67
35=10 hits-8.33=1.67
28=9 hits-8.33=.67
7=10 hits-8.33=1.67
29=10 hits-8.33=1.67
18=11 hits-8.33=2.67
22=10 hits-8.33=1.67
9=11 hits-8.33=2.67
14=9 hits-8.33=.67
8=12 hits-8.33=3.67
36=10 hits-8.33=1.67
13=10 hits-8.33=1.67
34=11 hits-8.33=2.67
2=12 hits-8.33=3.67
19=9 hits-8.33=.67
15=10 hits-8.33=1.67
32=12 hits-8.33=3.67


this wheal have a biased of: +40.06 plains, if you see in the chart this wheal is a “”“A”""" table
if you have +46 you have a wheal in the “SOFT LIMIT” and this wheal is probavely to mantain his conditions, in long term.

best regards UCHIMATA


#34
He make his test in random number generators, because the RGN, dont have any desviation, because is totaly random, the RNG don't have ""FISICAL PARTS"", but have randomnes like the real wheals, he makes in RNG, to understan the limit of random patterns and his behaviors.

Thanks I was clear with that, some people define it mathematically.

But don’t you think if for example one pocket divider is higher, that is will be better off to analyze spins in CW and ACW. Also if rotor is 5 sec per rotation the ball may like to hit there and most of the time stop few pockets from there. But if rotor is 2.5 sec. on average it may be longer.

I never played such way, I never took records of many spins.
But because I played a lot on one table I noticed that some numbers coming more often 9,22,18 and I played them. But when bal was in CW and if rotor was faster I played 29,7, 18. It worked until once I played and in 60-70 spins none of those numbers come up. Next time it was back to same. That is why I do not like to play that way. I can’t imagine myself to be there for hours and days and to take proper data.

Well that graph looks as my wheel. I would play around 18.

If you quoting text do not keep all post, delete what you do not want. ;D


#35

Uchi and Forester , as we know, the more spin clocked the more certain of a possible biased.

We are looking for biased sectors of numbers.

We calculate standard deviations of numbers and sectors determining the highest level to conclude it is not just random.

There are some places where you can clock several thousend of spins of the same wheel because they shuffle them very seldom.

In other places they do it weekly.

Sometimes you clock a dozen of tables and you find a good play in one or two of them.

The only way, as far as I know, is to track spins, the more the merrier, at least 3700 spins on an european wheel.

The other item is how work with money management when you find a biased wheel because the % could be small.

BR


#36

[quote=“toby, post:35, topic:239”]Uchi and Forester , as we know, the more spin clocked the more certain of a possible biased.

We are looking for biased sectors of numbers.

We calculate standard deviations of numbers and sectors determining the highest level to conclude it is not just random.

There are some places where you can clock several thousend of spins of the same wheel because they shuffle them very seldom.

In other places they do it weekly.

Sometimes you clock a dozen of tables and you find a good play in one or two of them.

The only way, as far as I know, is to track spins, the more the merrier, at least 3700 spins on an european wheel.

The other item is how work with money management when you find a biased wheel because the % could be small.

BR[/quote]
I¨M IN TOTAL AGRY WHITH YOU TOBY.


#37
We calculate standard deviations of numbers and sectors determining the highest level to conclude it is not just random.

I like the other guys approach better. He actually measured deviation limits on thousands of spins.


#38

Yes, this system want to colect a lot of spins, but this system if you obtain a wheal whith a good conditions, is the more profitable, and easy to play, than any other system that win in long term…

Best regards
Uchimata


#39

Uchi and forester, do you just flatbet or do you use another money management?

If you flatbet on a small profit table you need a huge BR and wage to collect a good amount.

For instance, a sector of 12 numbers come on average 1/35,5 instead of 1/37. You have +5,4. But, only +1,38 over 1/36.

You can win on the table but you need the highest chip to place to win 0.50 chips times 12 per a cicle of 36 spins(+6 chips per 36 spin cicle on average).

Other scenario, your 12 numbers come 1/34,5. What is the best way to win? Options: flat, any progression, other?

What is the best goal to achieve per hour? 10, 20, 36 units?

BR


#40

Yes, I would consider 1/35.5 totally unplayable, even if I new that edge was valid long term. Risk of ruin makes sure that total loss of the entire bank roll is by far the most likely way such a game will end.

The bank’s edge over the ordinary player isn’t better, but the differance is that many players bet all over the table all the time, the bank’s risk of ruin is therefor drastically much smaller.