Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2


#81

Only infinite progression can eliminate house advantage.

The question was how to play if you already have an advantage.


#82

[quote=“Forester, post:81, topic:239”]Only infinite progression can eliminate house advantage.

The question was how to play if you already have an advantage.[/quote]

In conclucion, progresions don’t work, because we don’t have infinite progressions?
And the tables have limits?

How to play?
For example visual balistic:
Any one have any progresion to play visual balistic,
to overcome the house edge in long term?
Or is better to play plain bets?
Whith progressions or decressions?
Any tipe of progressions or decressions work in long term?

The Question is, fight the house edge whith progressions?,
or were are you going to bet?
what is better?
best regards
UCHIMATA


#83

Please read this and give me an opinium

http://www.imagger.com/view/842366_TABLA_DE_PROGRESIONES.jpg.html
http://www.imagger.com/view/689365_TABLA_DE_PROGRESIONES1.jpg.html
http://www.imagger.com/view/37559_TABLA_DE_PROGRESIONES2.jpg.html
http://www.imagger.com/view/7895_TABLA_DE_PROGRESIONES3.jpg.html
http://www.imagger.com/view/956921_TABLA_DE_PROGRESIONES4.jpg.html

In my experience i’m convinced progressions “”"""""“DON’T WORK IN LONG TERM.”"""""""""

If some one have any progression or good money management to overcome the house edge please tell me.
The best money manegment is FLAT BETS…
and stay in top of good peaks.

best regards Uchimata


#84

Progression doesn’t change house advantage.

Advantage player makes advantage by knowing where the ball will drop, therefore form that point some numbers will come more often the others.

Based on his advantage, 5%, , 10%, 30% 100% he defines amount of his bets.

Kelly defines that with 30% advantage the player should play 7% of his account.
7% balances his money, so he can win reasonable amount, but at same time still is protected up to reasonable limit when exposed to series of bad predicted spins.
If the player has 30% advantage it is obvious that after some time he will increase his bank, by playing 7% of that brings him more money and process repeats.
What I do in my usual play is close to it, sometimes it is more aggressive.
For example, if I start with $500, I may play 7% which would be $35. If after sometime I make it to $1000, I may play $100 for 5 spins which is 10%. If I make it OK it lets me play with 10% or more and still be safe, if I do not and go back to $500 my bets go back to 7%.


#85

Uchimata, no one suggests that the advantage is in the progression or money management. The advantage should always be in the bet selection, triggered by physical parameters.

But in the advantage players game HE has the edge and his capital will have some sort of growth depending on his edge and his skills. To get maximum growth with maximum safety, Kelly is the best way to do it. You can have a faster growth with less safety, but will also be more likely to get some hits to your bankroll that was unnesscary. The players bankroll might have a value of 1 and the casinos bank, a value of 200 compared to the players. Even with an edge, a fluctation can wipe out the advantage player if he don`t have some sort of management that tells him to only bet small money in the bad streaks and big money when he is winning. The mathematical proof is here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

If the edge is negative the formula for Kelly betting dont work, basicly you get the message "dont bet", because the value you should bet is negative. Meaning the casino should place bets at your place in stead.


#86

[quote=“Kelly, post:85, topic:239”]Uchimata, no one suggests that the advantage is in the progression or money management. The advantage should always be in the bet selection, triggered by physical parameters.

But in the advantage players game HE has the edge and his capital will have some sort of growth depending on his edge and his skills. To get maximum growth with maximum safety, Kelly is the best way to do it. You can have a faster growth with less safety, but will also be more likely to get some hits to your bankroll that was unnesscary. The players bankroll might have a value of 1 and the casinos bank, a value of 200 compared to the players. Even with an edge, a fluctation can wipe out the advantage player if he don`t have some sort of management that tells him to only bet small money in the bad streaks and big money when he is winning. The mathematical proof is here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

If the edge is negative the formula for Kelly betting dont work, basicly you get the message "dont bet", because the value you should bet is negative. Meaning the casino should place bets at your place in stead.[/quote]

No better words to say.

BR.


#87

Ok:
How can you know when are coming a bad streaks?, or good ones? if the problem is skil, if you have a good skil you never come to preocupate to bad strikes or yes? for example:
in visual balistic you are playin fisicl factors, that in the theory random not afect, or random afects to?
or to go more higer, whith roulette computters, this artefact calculate velocity of the ball and the rotor, is more acurate than the human skil, ¿Why it fail a lot of times?
When can you know is coming a good streaks or a bad ones?
If you decodify when to bet more higer, you have the key to the tresure.
Can some one explain me how?
Or is only a hart feeling to wen bet more higer or not?

Best regards Uchimata


#88

It is not a question of good or bad steaks, we do not know when to risk more o less.

We are talking about money management, not sink before phisics does its work.

You have 10k BR with +5%(2.7+5%), bet 150, you loose 2k, bet 120, now you win 6k(br16k) bet 240, loose 2000, play 210.

Your BR will be totally saved playing this way because you always risk 1.5% of your BR.

When you reach 20k you play 300.

If it happens that you have tracked 3000 to 5000 spins and conditions changed to +4% or less you lower your bets to that %.

It is not a progression, you play a fixed % of your BR.

best regards.


#89

Toby: i understand,what are you saying, but i’m not agry whith you in this:
For example your bank roll is 200 chips, and in the first bet you put the 20% of this amount,
the amount is 40 chips, and your bank roll know is 160 chips, then
16020%=32 chips
128
20%=25.6 chips
10820%=21.6 chips
86.40
20%=17.28 chips
69.12*20%=11.04
if you don’t have a wining bet in 6 spins you rigt here have a problem, ¿WHY?
for example if you are playing 15 numbers, Were are you taking the rest of the chips to bet the next bet?
The loosing strikes in roulette, are more than 6 bets, my friend.
If you are shure you are coming to win in the next 6 spins is better to use martingale, Dont do you think that?
For example if you are playing whith plain bets , playing 15 numbers, you play 13 spins, waiting to a good high peak.
Please expalin me this.
The good peaks and the bad peaks come in agruped periods, random actuate like this.
If you are playing biased wheals, you are waiting the wheal overcome the house edge whith flat bets, like random, the random is plain, not progresive or “DECRESIVE”, house edge is 2.7 in all moment, the wheal don’t need to progresionate this 2.7 or decrease this 2.7 to win you, the wheal are based in the random and in some cases in the deeler avility to search numbers. a biased wheal overcome the house edge whith the bad function of the wheal, you dont need to risk, playin higer or lower bets, you only need a good wheal conditon.
Do you know what is the wors part of a gambler? the ambision.
Best regards Uchimata


#90

You dont NEED to play with the Kelly Criteria, but you will end up with a lot more money than if you didnt and in the unthinkable bad streaks you hits (and you WILLLLLL hit those) you will feel a lot better because your bets will slowly be smaller and smaller.

A simulation with the Kelly Criteria, shows that if you play a 5 number sector with a 13.5% edge and a 10.000 bankroll your bank will develop like this with and without the KC.

If you flat bet 40$ pr number, 200$ pr. spin, your bank will develop like this:

100 spins 15200 $
500 spins 12200
1000 spins 25600
1500 spins 39000
2000 spins 45400
2500 spins 58800
3000 spins 73600

If you use the Kelly Criteria, starting out with the same amount: 10.000$ bankroll and 40$ pr. number (200 pr spin) it looks like this

100 spins 14650$
500 spins 7400
1000 spins 15200
1500 spins 28750
2000 spins 30100
2500 spins 66500
3000 spins 147350

NOTE: In this case the KC was a slow starter, and the flat bet came off to a better/faster start, but in real life we cannot know that. The ±-±-etc. streak was equal for both scenarios. Both streaks had the same amount of hits placed in the same places.

Bottom line is, that the KC player could pocket 147350 (minus the initial 10 K) and the flat better could pocket 73600 (minus the initial 10K). The KC player had higher bets at some time but also lower than the flat better, but the KC player never risked more than 5% of his bankroll in a spin. Never.

The worst case were at spin 300 where the KC players bank were 6500 and the flat betters 8500. There were some heavy drawdowns for the KC player between spin 2500 and 3000 but at this point the bets were aiming for the table limits and obviously the losses are also bigger at this point.


#91

Playing what?
Were you obtain the 13% edge?
How you know this 13%edge are coming more or less in the next spins?
You need 10,000 units to play every day?
how is your bank roll every day?
the kelly creteria is designed to play 18/1 bets.
best regards
Uchimata


#92

Kelly, if you follow it, how do you place chips,
If you play 7 pockets and you need to place 40 after some spins 30 or 60, how can you in short time always measure amount of chips you going to place.


#93

BIASED WHEALS AND THE OTHERS WININ SYSTEMS, HAVE THIS BEHAVIOR IN DAYS, AND IN LONG TERM.
HERE IS A 12 DAYS OF PLAY, AND HAVE POSITIVE PEAKS AND DRAMATICALY NEGATIVE PEAKS, IF I PLAY DECRESIONS OR PROGRESIONS IM GOING TO LOSSE.

[URL=http://www.imagger.com/view/258616_RANDOM_PATTERN_EVOLUTION.jpg.html][/URL]

THE RANDOM IS NOT GOOD PLAYED IN SHORT TERM.
IF I THINK MATHEMATICAL, KELY CRETERIA THERE WE PROBABELY HAVE AN EDGE, BUT REAL PLAY IS ANOTHER THING, THE ROULLETE IS MATHEMATICAL BLINDED.

IF YOU WANT TO PLAY KELY CRETERIA, TO MY IS OK, IS NOT MY MONEY.

TOBY:
DO YOU REALY PLAY ROULETTE OR YOU ARE A DESK PLAYER?
WERE YOU PLAY?
What system do you play?
BEST REGARDS
UCHIMATA


#94

[quote=“Kelly, post:90, topic:239”]You dont NEED to play with the Kelly Criteria, but you will end up with a lot more money than if you didnt and in the unthinkable bad streaks you hits (and you WILLLLLL hit those) you will feel a lot better because your bets will slowly be smaller and smaller.

A simulation with the Kelly Criteria, shows that if you play a 5 number sector with a 13.5% edge and a 10.000 bankroll your bank will develop like this with and without the KC.

If you flat bet 40$ pr number, 200$ pr. spin, your bank will develop like this:

100 spins 15200 $
500 spins 12200
1000 spins 25600
1500 spins 39000
2000 spins 45400
2500 spins 58800
3000 spins 73600

If you use the Kelly Criteria, starting out with the same amount: 10.000$ bankroll and 40$ pr. number (200 pr spin) it looks like this

100 spins 14650$
500 spins 7400
1000 spins 15200
1500 spins 28750
2000 spins 30100
2500 spins 66500
3000 spins 147350

NOTE: In this case the KC was a slow starter, and the flat bet came off to a better/faster start, but in real life we cannot know that. The ±-±-etc. streak was equal for both scenarios. Both streaks had the same amount of hits placed in the same places.

Bottom line is, that the KC player could pocket 147350 (minus the initial 10 K) and the flat better could pocket 73600 (minus the initial 10K). The KC player had higher bets at some time but also lower than the flat better, but the KC player never risked more than 5% of his bankroll in a spin. Never.

The worst case were at spin 300 where the KC players bank were 6500 and the flat betters 8500. There were some heavy drawdowns for the KC player between spin 2500 and 3000 but at this point the bets were aiming for the table limits and obviously the losses are also bigger at this point.[/quote]

KELY:
WHITH THE SAME BANK ROLL YOU PLAY PLAIN WHITH 100 UNIT IN THE NUMBERS, AND YOU WIN MORE THAN THE KC.
DO YOU THINK IN THAT?
""""""""""""""“THE SAME BANK ROLL”""""""""""""""""""
PLAYING IN REAL, NOT IN DESK WHITH THE CALCULATOR BEHIND.

BEST REGARDS
UCHIMATA


#95

Here is a mist understandin in the KC:
For example your bank roll is 200 chips, and in the first bet you put the 20% of this amount,
1 BET- the amount is 40 chips, and your bank roll know is 160 chips, then
2 BET 16020%=32 chips
3 BET 128
20%=25.6 chips
4 BET 102.420%=20.48 here you hit a number whith 1.5 chips ,and his new bank roll is 156.4 units then your next bet is:
5 BET 156.4
20%= 31.26 in 15 numbers are 2 chips Again in very number, an then you loose your bank roll is:
125.1420%=25.08 AND YOU LOOSE
Bank roll 100.06
20%=20 units in bet at 15 numbers 1.33 each number
6 BET and you hit +48+100.06=148.06

You employ 194.42 units in 6 spins

THIS KIND OF BET IN EVERY PLACE IN THE WORD ARE PROGRESSION PLAY,

OK, IF I PLAY FLAT BETS WHAT HAPEN WHIT THIS FRECUENCY?:

FIRT BET 15 UNITS, BANK ROLL 185
2 BET 15 UNITS BANK ROLL 160
3 BET 15 UNITS BANK ROLL 145 UNITS
4 I HIT BANK ROLL 165 UNITS
5 BET 15 AND LOOSE, MY BANK ROLL IS 150 UNITS,
6 I HIT MY NEW BANK ROLL IS 176 UNITS

I IMPLOY ONLY 90 UNITS IN 6 SPINS TO BET, AND MY BANK ROLL RIGHT KNOW IS 176 UNITS

THEN IN KELY C, I IMPLOY 194.42 UNITS AND MY BANK ROLL IS 148.06

AND ALL PEOPLE PLAY REAL KNOW, THIS IS NOT A BAD RAW.
THIS WILL BE A COMUN RAW

THE KELY CRETERIA DDDOOOOONNNNNTTTTTT WOOOOORRRRRRKKKK, IN SHORT TERM ALMOST IN LONG TERM.

BEST REGARDS UCHIMATA


#96

In your example you should start with flat bat of 20%

If you started with 1% and if system is losing your losses would be smaller.

Method is not to provide advantage but to reasonably balance your money based on advantage you have. So you do not lose so fast but you also do not win to fast. . Balance is achieved by calculated possibility of negative strikes so that your game still can survive for example 9 out of 10 times.

If you have single biased number, that comes double then any other number.

Chance that you will hit it is 1:18, but it can be 100 spins until you hit it.

Method will give you idea how much to play with your bank, so you can achieve it.


#97

The best playable biased wheals, are biased in 12 to 19 consecutive pockets. 1 ,2 or 3 pockets biased in a wheal in a lot of cases are random momentanium biased, and in a lot of cases if present a fisical desperfection is not generative.

Uchimata


#98

If you play 1 single number you can wait 200 spins after a hit.

That post are coming to be a black or white discussion,
every one play like they likes.

In my experience i know any tipe of progression or decression of the bets fails in long run.
The only way i found to overcome the house edge,(talking in money manegement) is playin 200 units every day, flat bets, playing 3 series a day, if i loose i go home, because the random have a very negative peak this day.
other day will be.

Best regards Uchimata


#99

[quote=“uchimata, post:89, topic:239”]Toby: i understand,what are you saying, but i’m not agry whith you in this:
For example your bank roll is 200 chips, and in the first bet you put the 20% of this amount,
the amount is 40 chips, and your bank roll know is 160 chips, then
16020%=32 chips
128
20%=25.6 chips
10820%=21.6 chips
86.40
20%=17.28 chips
69.12*20%=11.04
if you don’t have a wining bet in 6 spins you rigt here have a problem, ¿WHY?
for example if you are playing 15 numbers, Were are you taking the rest of the chips to bet the next bet?
The loosing strikes in roulette, are more than 6 bets, my friend.
If you are shure you are coming to win in the next 6 spins is better to use martingale, Dont do you think that?
For example if you are playing whith plain bets , playing 15 numbers, you play 13 spins, waiting to a good high peak.
Please expalin me this.
The good peaks and the bad peaks come in agruped periods, random actuate like this.
If you are playing biased wheals, you are waiting the wheal overcome the house edge whith flat bets, like random, the random is plain, not progresive or “DECRESIVE”, house edge is 2.7 in all moment, the wheal don’t need to progresionate this 2.7 or decrease this 2.7 to win you, the wheal are based in the random and in some cases in the deeler avility to search numbers. a biased wheal overcome the house edge whith the bad function of the wheal, you dont need to risk, playin higer or lower bets, you only need a good wheal conditon.
Do you know what is the wors part of a gambler? the ambision.
Best regards Uchimata[/quote]

You must determine your minimum bet, then from there on.

Then, your edge.

You place no more than your edge in each spin.

You can calculate the next bet every 4 to 6 spins.

BR 10K, edge 5%: playing always 150 could break your BR.

I listen to Kelly, he helped me a lot.


#100

[quote=“uchimata, post:91, topic:239”]Playing what?
Were you obtain the 13% edge?
How you know this 13%edge are coming more or less in the next spins?
You need 10,000 units to play every day?
how is your bank roll every day?
the kelly creteria is designed to play 18/1 bets.
best regards
Uchimata[/quote]

You can apply Kelly criterion to anything when you have an edge.

Your BR could be 10k but you go with 2000 a day.

You decide whether you consider the grand BR 10k or the one you take everyday to go to the casino. It gives you the amount to risk.

To determine the edge you must have analized the wheel for certain decitions and conclude that the edge is 13 or any %.