I prepared here five examples about different possibilities at roulette table. With each example we play with an advantage.
We play 66 spins, number 66 doesn’t have any particular meaning it could be any number, because I started explanation with advantage of 1 in 33 hit rate, so I used 66 spins so an average hit on a single number would be 66/33=2.
Also around that figure it may be amount of spins that a player may play in casino within 2-3 hours’ time frame.
In all examples we will play $9 per spin.
Example 1 and 4, we play $9 on a single number while in other examples we distribute $9 across 9 numbers sector, so we place $1 on each number.
If we play 66 spins total amount placed on table would be 66 x $9 =$594
with an average hit rate 1:33 we would expect to win from table 2 times
2 x 36 x $9 value = $648
Place $594 get back $648, profit $648-594=$54
As you can see it is close to 10% profit which is logical since we have an advantage of about 10%.
However, because of short sample and unequal distribution of results we can expect something else.
If we look possibilities what will happen by playing single number we would 95% of time end up in between minus 0.79 and 4.79 wins. Of course it is a mathematical limit, we can’t win 4.79 times, it would be 4 or 5 times and we can’t have limit lower than zero therefore minus 0.79 is zero wins.
After calculation using possibility limits 95% of times we will end up somewhere in between winning 0 to $1550 from the table we play.
It means we will end up losing every single spin or we may profit up to $1550-$594=$956.
Surely such high deviation is not very good for an advantage roulette player.
As you can see with 10% advantage we can play 66 spins without single win. The ball may stop 3 times next to number we played but it doesn’t make anything good to us.
Here we have same situation but this time we distribute same amount of money $9 across 9 numbers and place $1 on each.
We expect to win 2 times per number played which makes an average of 18 wins.
And again, due to uneven distribution 95% of time we will end up from 10.76 to 25.24 wins in our 66 spins played.
With 10.76 hits we will still lose since we would get from table $387, and we placed $594.
As you can see this makes distribution more even, after 66 spins 10% advantage 95% of time we will end up in our hands with $387 to $909.
To be 95% sure that we will profit when playing with 10% advantage we would need to play same as in example 2 but about 1500 spins in total.
To have constant advantage of 10% for 1500 spins using ballistic is extremely hard.
Some may say well dealers signature on long run may show us advantage of 5-10%.
The dealer may spin 50 spins 15,16 or 17 rotations most of the time.
Next 50 it may be 16,17,18. Next 5 mostly 17, next 50 mostly 15…etc
Rotor may deviate in speed, 1-2 pockets per sec, which on spin 15 sec long makes 15 -30 pockets differences. Ball may behave differently, and it does. 50 spins ball may be jumping differently.
The player without constant observation of ball drop point has no control and no idea if he is still playing with an advantage. Results combined with randomness of ball jumps are more pattern chasing, which we never know when will start or end, or how long it will last.
With small advantage for an AP everything is harder.
[i]Anything above green line is advantage. If we read values we can see that pick point is only 2.85 and green line is at 2.78 so the difference is 0.07. It means that for every 100 spins played we would win 35x0.07=2.45 units. Or if we round it up, we can say every 200 spins we should profit 3 units. Theoretically it will work; you can play for 10 hours and win few bucks.
The problem is that hit rate is only 0.07 above the profitable limit. Therefore we wouldn’t be able to detect it. It will take hours to define it but until then definitely the dealer will change. He may start spinning more often slightly different amount of rotations, the ball will be replaced or to be more dirty, polish on wheel may erode, temperature or air pressure will change, the wheel will slightly move from vibrations on the table, the tilt will change etc. It means soon we may play with negative advantage.[/i]
It is same as example 1 but this time we have about 30% advantage (hit rate 1:24).
If we play only a single number we still can end up without single win.
We will place on table $594 and 95% of times we will end up with getting from table 0 to $1943.
It is same as example 4 but this time we distribute $9 across 9 pockets ($1 on each)
Since advantage is significant ~30% and units are distributed across 9 pockets 95% of time we will win. We would place on table $594 and we would be getting back something in between $608 and $1174.
It is important here to understand that just playing more numbers doesn’t create same effect all the time.
Someone may come in conclusion that playing 18 numbers will give us better stability and certain wins. It is not the truth since created advantage is not across 37 numbers. With each spin one area of wheel will have less chance for ball to stop there, while the other area will have more. It depends how wide area with advantage is. In usual I play 5-9 pockets. If playing wider sector some numbers we play may have significantly reduced advantage or even negative.
This may be typical created advantage.
Everything marked with green colour is where the advantage is. After analysing data if someone was playing according to this prediction and covering 11 pockets from -5 to +5 from prediction, he would play with advantage of 53%. Since this graph are results from bench test, in casino we often can’t analyse results with such details. Therefore playing 5-9 pockets will give us some space for errors if we are not perfectly positioned in area where the best advantage is.
It is important to understand how advantage for ballistic AP player is created.
To be able to have previous graph the player will need accuracy of prediction to rotor point as it is displayed on this graph. We can see that most of spins the ball drops within 10 pockets of players expectation. After ball hits the rotor it jumps based on ball scatter law, for that particular wheel and ball. When a player has something so constant to observe, he has better control over the game.
From the graph we can see that the ball most of the time hits 10 pockets in front of predicted number.
If for example for next 5-6spins the ball hits 7-8 pockets after the predicted number the player instantly knows something is happening on the wheel.
If the player observes only results where the ball stops he would need at least 100 spins to be able to react and to make necessary adjustments so he can continue playing with an advantage. Playing 100 spins and losing is not fun.
That is why I was shocked when come across roulette computers that build data graphs on that way, or when watching some salesman making videos where computer can’t constantly predict where on rotor the ball will drop.
Anyway if you read this post with understanding you would also understand that making video of 50 to 100 spins in convincing someone to buy roulette computer or VB system is pointless.
95% of times this is our chance to end up with any profit with each of previous examples.
Example1 … 53%
Example2 … 60%
Example3 … 99%
Example4 … 64%
Example5 … 100%