Evolution of roulettes advantage play


#21

This forum has some interesting posts. Rather refreshing.

I like the graphics too. :slight_smile:


#22

hey there snowman!!! how have you been my friend? I took a little break. I have a new wife and took some time off… I’ll be looking to get back in the swing of things this fall. 8)

I’ll definitely be checking this entire thread out with a fine tooth comb… :o


#23

Recently someone asked me.

How can I win roulette with advantage play?
Let’s say I predict VB.
I play 5 numbers sector.
Let’s say in average in 7 spins I can get it only once perfectly.

For example 4 times I predict spot on (the ball hits dominant diamond and drops on rotor where expected), and 3 times wrongly.
From that 4 well predicted spins, because of ball jumps distribution only once in 4 spins I win.
So to win I would need perfect hit on rotor and perfect jump.

For example the ball hits 10 pockets in front of number I predicted and jumps 10 pockets. But it happens only every 4 spin that the ball perfectly jumps.

If all together happens once in 7 spins I am still not winning.
Playing 7 spins by 5 units is 35 units, we can say close to zero wins.


What we need to understand in this example is that when player wins he did not win with 5,10,or 50% advantage but he placed 5 units and won 35-5=30 which is 600% of what he played.

In 4 spins that he predicted correctly, he wins only one and loses 3 times. He can’t win on 3 spins because the ball jumped wrongly so it did not end up inside of his 5 pockets sector. If we distribute winnings for that 4 spins he still plays with 75% advantage.

Important point here is that remaining 3 spins badly predicted are not 100% loses but it is a play with negative advantage.

Instead of -2.7% house edge the player may be getting on them -10% or -30%. It is negative bu it is still something.

For example when with perfect hit he gets ball drops at rotor 5 pockets in front of predicted number and chance 1 in 20 that the ball will jump 5 pockets from there.
If the spin was wrongly predicted and the ball dropped at rotor 15 pockets in front of prediction he may have chance of 1 : 50 that the ball will jump 15 pockets.

Surely, 1:50 may be any value, it could be anything from 1:20… 1:30…1:40…1:100 etc
It is defined by scatter law.

An average distribution would give us 1:37 therefore 1:50 is a significant negative advantage.
Since the player plays 5 pockets sector, 1:50 hits will mean a hit in every 10 spins.

Distributed across 3 spins it means an extra 0.3 hits in 7 spins.
Now players average win every 7 spins is 1+0.3 times which makes him to profit
10.5 units, it also mean he is playing with 30% advantage.

image

In usual there is a reason why player gets spin wrongly predicted.

For example when playing traditional VB prediction may be in wrong rotation.
It could mean 10-15 pockets difference. (it depends on rotor speed)

With specific conditions skilled roulette player may optimise his play and take advantage of 2 pick point. In such case even his bad predicted spins would produce positive advantage. If we look the graph we can see that all the way from about position -8 up to +15 the player doesn’t have negative advantage. (only small area around zero).

(It means if the ball drops on area across he still has chance of at least 1:37 to win)
If his VB prediction is floating in between 2 ball rotations distanced ~12 pockets it really doesn’t matter to him if he predicted in one or the other ball rotation.

Example:

If the player predicts in 6th rotation to the end.
His prediction is zero the ball hits number 19 (EU wheel, ball direction CW)
The ball most of the time jumps -3 or +9 pockets (graph).

If the ball jumps -3 (1:20 chance based on data from the graph) he wins
If he plays 5 numbers sector it will happen every 4 spins.

If the player misses to predict in 6th ball rotation but instead gets prediction in 5th.
Instead of predicted number zero he will get predicted number 13, based on graphs scatter law he has a chance od 1:25 that the ball will jump 9 pockets. ( from number 19 to 13)

Based on this the player will win 2 times every 9 spins.
He will place 9x5 units=45 and get back from table 2 x 36 =74
It is 64% advantage. (perfect prediction would produce max 75% advantage)
Easier said than done.

In this example 64% advantage would be top limit. (4 spins predicted in 6th and 5 in 5th ball rotation)
Reality is that pick points with advantage are relatively narrow and prediction will never be so accurate therefore the player will not always take the best from pick point.
The point of this explanation is to show how predicting where the difference in between 2 ball rotation is equal to distance in between two pick points on scattergram can actually give benefits to a skilled player.


#24
Thank you for the links! I regret that I didn't see the topic [url=http://rouletteplace.com/index.php/topic,1019.0.html]http://rouletteplace.com/index.php/topic,1019.0.html[/url] before I sent money to xxxx...

I went in casino, gambled for a night and won some money, that was enough for buying xxxx system bought it, read it and understood, that this system will never help me in any case, especially in earning money

To be honest, this topic has much more valuable information then all his “system” :=). Thanks once again!

Over 1000 views in short time is reasonably lot for this forum.

I am happy some people find it useful.

While I am still thinking what to write next everybody is welcome to add his view/knowladge/commnet to it.


#25

Hi Forester it helps very much, one of the very best I read
about VB. it’s great.

Many thanks E.H.


#26

Alot of thought put into this and very interesting. Playing with 5 units can be a little frustrating sometimes as the ball lands within 1 or 2 pockets of your 5 units so many times. i Prefer to play around 7-8 units now.


#27

Just curios do you use VB2 and do you use one dominant deflector ( in my local casino there exist no strong 1 pin game to take andvantage of ) or do you use a 2 pin game with overlaps.


#28

Hi Gmabler and welcome to the forum

I see BY YOUR posts that your serious about this PM me and Ill put you onto somone in your area

btw where you from on AU,as I need to know

are you near oslo

awell bye bye gambler ,I guess thats the last WHEEL here of him


#29

Hi lucky strike, where I am there are plenty of 1-2 dominant pin games, obviously its not a 100% 1 pin game, but id say a good 60-70% of it is. Also it takes a while scouting for the right table and wheel speed, also to see if the croupier calls NMB early. Sometimes i find if you smile at the croupier and make small talk, they will be kind enough to let you finish placing your late bets. Generally if i cant find a perfect table, i do not bet. for me predicting the sector of the wheel is not difficult, the most difficult part of VB for me is placing bets, as sometimes you cant even see the numbers as they are covered in chips, as well as the fact that tables that are next to eachother have the numbers flipped in reverse order. Obviously im still learning so im no where near as good as some of the people on this forum, but time and practice will eventually help me succeed = :slight_smile: (i hope)
Hi security man, What do you mean by you’ll put someone in my area?


#30

Just curios do you use VB2 and do you use one dominant deflector ( in my local casino there exist no strong 1 pin game to take andvantage of ) or do you use a 2 pin game with overlaps.[/quote]

Hi LS,

Two pin game with overlapping sectors I agree with you but that is if you hav 2 pin in same direction.

I see quite often wheels that have seperate DD’s for CW and CCW. So is the current wheel I’m playing VB2 on. For CW I have a DDand for CCW I have a DD.

Cheers
Toxic


#31

Just curios do you use VB2 and do you use one dominant deflector ( in my local casino there exist no strong 1 pin game to take andvantage of ) or do you use a 2 pin game with overlaps.[/quote]

Hi LS,

Two pin game with overlapping sectors I agree with you but that is if you hav 2 pin in same direction.

I see quite often wheels that have seperate DD’s for CW and CCW. So is the current wheel I’m playing VB2 on. For CW I have a DDand for CCW I have a DD.

Cheers
Toxic[/quote]

i second that, a couple days ago i was playingVB at a table and it took me a while to realize that every second spin the DD seemed to be shifting from the 9-12 to the 12-3 area. Not sure why they would shift because of the direction of the ball, i guess theres still so much to learn = )


#32

Just curios do you use VB2 and do you use one dominant deflector ( in my local casino there exist no strong 1 pin game to take andvantage of ) or do you use a 2 pin game with overlaps.[/quote]

Hi LS,

Two pin game with overlapping sectors I agree with you but that is if you hav 2 pin in same direction.

I see quite often wheels that have seperate DD’s for CW and CCW. So is the current wheel I’m playing VB2 on. For CW I have a DDand for CCW I have a DD.

Cheers
Toxic[/quote]
i second that, a couple days ago i was playingVB at a table and it took me a while to realize that every second spin the DD seemed to be shifting from the 9-12 to the 12-3 area. Not sure why they would shift because of the direction of the ball, i guess theres still so much to learn = )[/quote]

There could be several reasons.

One reason could be that the track is warped. So for CW and CCW directions the track forces the ball to different deflectors.

Cheers
Toxic


#33

thanks for that Toxic, i always had this idea that the reason tilted wheels were tilted was because the wheel itself was slightly tilted, i never really thought of the actual ball track.


#34

Toxic my opinion is that you should change your way of play as VB2 has to much limits.
I believe you would be better of to learn how to get early or late 9 second before drop and that your VB read is the same number below your main deflector when ball hits it with a very small marginal of error.
The andvantage using that method is that you can develop patterns for a wide spreed of different rotor speed and adjust and confirm.
As i understood VB2 just work with certain rotor speeds and there exist no option to adjust and calibrate correlation with different speeds.
I also assume that VB2 with out a thumper is not accurate even if the option is that you can start the metronome when you want and get it to vibrate as a zap from FFZ.
I see it that develop a easy way and recognise a acoustic sound pattern that key just a momentum before 1.0 is a good way then use the xxxx xxxxx xxxxx :slight_smile:
With this way you just glance at the wheel twice and short moments and place your bets with out to much worries :slight_smile:
Is regarding my opinion the next best from getting closer to what legends like Laurance does - just feel the key turnaround and move forward.


#35

You can adjust the rotor speed in VB2. For example you target certain amount of revolutions before ball drops that takes let’s say 10 seconds. You set your VB2 for 4 seconds rotor speed and your VB2 time is 2 second.

When the ball is just spun you start your time (2 seconds) and look how much pockets rotor travels. If it travels 18 pockets - there is no change in rotor speed. If it travels let’s say 20 pockets - the rotor is faster and in 10 seconds it will make additional 10 pockets. So you shift your prediction point by 10 pockets in the direction of the ball. If rotor speed is slower - you shift your prediction point in the opposite direction of ball. That’s it.


#36

:wink: Hi LS,

Shotman is correct. Rotor timing is done with 2 sec time frame. I don’t even use a metronome but rather headcount. The problem I have on some touchbet wheels are the fact that the spins are way shorter than at the tables. I even have difficulty taking 2 second wheel timing and then using VB2… I try and recognise wheel speed as the dealer spins up and then use VB2. I agree that I’m taking away some of the advantage because I might loose or gain 1-2 pockets with wheel speed in a 2 sec timeframe causing for instance 10 pocket differnce at the end.

I find VB2 the only playable VB method when time is really tight. Forget about traditional VB on these wheels.

Cheers buddy
Toxic


#37

I am not sure if we are on the same page so i send you a PM and i dint talk about traditional VB :wink:


#38

Hi LS,

I’m always interested in any AP method. Knowledge is power! :wink:

Cheers
Toxic


#39

SOME GOOD STUFF IN HERE!!!

there is a lot of informative information buried in this thread on the first page… keep up the good work Forester… . 8)


#40

[quote=“Forester, post:7, topic:538”]On next signal we see the ball above number 10, for us it looks as the ball only made 14 pockets.
Of course the ball is slowing down therefore until we get signal again it will not make 37 +14 pockets but let’s say 37+6 (8 pockets less). If we add from point “B” 37+6 pockets we will come to point “C” above number 20 and it is 6 pockets distanced form point “B”. When we get next signal the ball is at point “D”, the ball made (37+6)-7=36 pockets and it is above number 1. This time the ball is the closest to our previous point. Only one pocket difference therefore this is our triggering point.

In this example you can notice that the ball is slowing down 6-8 pockets in our reference time of 1.2 sec. This is something most realistic to happen on a real wheel in casino. I would like you to notice that with this paroach we do not get a perfect crossing pattern match. As in this example in last strobed rotation we were one pocket shorter from point “C”. We could have plus or minus 4 pocket difference. When we find the closest match to our reference time where in that time the ball makes closest to one full rotation we know that ball time is close to our reference time, therefore we assume remaining time that ball will travel is constant.

From the moment when we found that ball rotation matches 1.2s time we wait until ball comes to our dominant diamond DD and read reference number form there. We assume that after that point the ball will make same amount of rotations until it drops therefore if look from the end of spin our reference number should be taken in same rotation. It will not happen all the time, the reason is + or - 4 pockets difference in our sample, we can avoid some spin or we can live with that and still play, but there is additional problem.

Firstly let me explain something! Here I am trying to explain reality of visual perdition when trying to target particular ball rotation. Same as with all posts in this thread, I do not have intention to discredit anyone who sells any of this or similar methods. It is only constructive criticism and personal analyses of problems we as advantage players are facing. Perhaps through all this thread I may have intention to explain why myrulet.com visual prediction 2 (VB2) is as it is, but we will come to that point later.

Back to additional problem with finding pattern using timer of 1.2 sec.
On the same picture notice the position of dominant diamond (DD).
In our example we found the closest pattern at number 20 -1, notice the position in relation to DD.
After we found the pattern, the ball needs to travel to our DD where we read reference number. It takes time, in this example it is probably about 0.5s. Therefore even if we found perfect pattern, real ball speed at DD will not be any more 1.2s but slower by how much the ball slows down until it makes about one third of rotation (on the picture it is from number 1 to number 0). If we analyse it more we can see that we could find same pattern at any position and not only 1/3 distanced form DD as in this example. We could find it after ball just passed DD; we could find it right in front of DD.

It means sometimes we have to wait almost for a full ball rotation until the ball riches our DD. Surely then at DD where we take our reference number, the ball will not be 1200ms but closer to 1400ms per rotation . Alternatively if we find pattern just after the DD, we may take reference number instantly estimating which number was at DD when the ball was passing it.

Basically if we find pattern in first half of the wheel form DD point, we can go back to DD if we find it in second half we wait until the ball finishes rotation as previously explained. This way we target ball speeds somewhere 1100ms -1300 ms, if we waiting for ball to come to DD from any position when we find pattern then we targeting ball speeds about 1200-1400ms. It really doesn’t make much difference if we do not know at which speed is a braking point when the ball will make one less revolution. Another option is as soon as we find pattern when the ball is 1.2 sec. regardless where we find it we instantly transfer eye sight to DD and read the reference number. It would us about same results.

Does it sound complicated? It isn’t complicated I would say more inaccurate and to improve accuracy it may be complicated. If we take in consideration that finding cross pattern perfect match is not perfect every time also that when the pattern is found ball position may be at different place we can assume differences in prediction can be significant. We can see problem of using continuous pulsing timer (thumper) to find cross pattern.
Instead of observing ball in reference to roulettes frame we can look to match pattern with moving numbers on rotor of the wheel as Laurance’s CS) , but differences in rotor speed will give us only more errors and make finding patterns less accurate.[/quote]

What I use to do was to actually look straight at my DD and count (headcount) as the ball crosses, 1001, if the ball is pass the DD I wait for it to cross again and count 1001 again. If the ball is at my DD or in close proxinity I look at number under DD. It works pretty well. Only problem is if a second is too late and I need to use say 1,2 or 1,3 seconds. Then Headcount isn’t that easy. Off course wheel speed gets used as well.

Cheers
Toxic

If unclear, when the ball crosses DD I start counting one…thousand …and one. If the ball is back at the DD after that I have my one sec. rotation. If not I count again.