# A quick poll: Raise your hand if you're working on bias wheel play

A quick poll: Raise your hand if you’re working on bias wheel play. I’m trying to determine how many people there are still out there. I know the numbers are very small. We tend to be a very quiet and discrete minority, so please send me a PM. I’m trying to see who some of the new people are that I’m seeing out in the field.

Lerning stats for now…

Collecting data…

Im new here, but ive been reading a lot.

I want to collect at least 3000 spins.

Also learning VB

RKiddo

I am probably the oldest Biased Wheel player on this forum.

Have collected tens of thousands of spins on live croupier wheels from around Australia.

Use a spreadsheet and other tools for identifying playable anomalies.

I play several hours twice a week.

Mike.

Working on…

Does it worth to collect from auto wheels? This kind especially http://www.amatic.com/297.html (Ball is going only CC)

12k on one wheel
8k on other
still counting…

Why are you still collecting data after having so large samples?

After 800 trails you can tell if you will skip that wheel or continue tracking using a specific formula and playing model.
You need hard core knowledge if you are going to tell if a wheel is bias or not bias just collecting numbers without defect spotting.

There is a way to tell if numbers are due to luck hitting 3.0 STD and are just random fluctation or real bias.
You need to know the difference.

800 spins isn’t enough if you’re tracking a wheel that has a weak bias. The degree of bias, (meaning just how strong is the wheel?) is a big big big factor.

It also depends on how many really good wheels you have to choose from.

800 spins isn't enough if you're tracking a wheel that has a weak bias.

What do you mean by weak bias?

Cheers

[quote=“lucky_strike, post:9, topic:1049”]

800 spins isn’t enough if you’re tracking a wheel that has a weak bias.

What do you mean by weak bias?

Cheers[/quote]

Take a 5 or even 10% bias number and see how it performs over 400 or 800 numbers from 20 sessions. Then check stronger bias over the same number of trials. Pelayo got very lucky, he was in a country that could not ban players, had biased wheels in his local casino that I guess did not run basic bias software, and also had staff seemingly not being aware of such practices such as bias play in that they made things very easy for him.

In my opinion, if you want to go the route of confirming the bias from raw data without defect spotting you may want to reconsider the casinos you choose to play at. The stronger the bias, the easier it will generally be to see without raw data!

I have the hypotes and formula to detct bias using only numbers without defect spotting.
Not many know that you can distinct the difference between whats due to random fluctation and what is a true bias wheel without defect spotting (only collecting numbers).

My question is what Snowman mean by weak bias wheel.
Lets say if i get a wheel with a shi squeare around 55/66 i would continue tracking that wheel if lower i would skip that wheel (you only need 800/1000 trails for that).
So how do you know when to track a wheel for a weak bias if you not using defect spotting.
You need indications like math values and probability to tell you if you are going to skip following a wheel or continue.
I cant see you do that without defect spotting - find a wheel with a weak bias.

I have the hypotes and formula to detct bias using only numbers without defect spotting.
Ok that is possible, but that is very long and not certain way. And more - i think that this is not practical way. You will have big troubles to colect several thousands spins on several wheels which are few thousands km away from you. And only numbers are very week way to detect bias - you must be sure that here are not mistakes , that here are no gaps in data. Few mistakes and few gaps can very change value of data and this way several thousands data becomes equal or even less in value than data colected in more complex way in short time.

[quote=“lucky_strike, post:11, topic:1049”]I have the hypotes and formula to detct bias using only numbers without defect spotting.
Not many know that you can distinct the difference between whats due to random fluctation and what is a true bias wheel without defect spotting (only collecting numbers).

My question is what Snowman mean by weak bias wheel.
Lets say if i get a wheel with a shi squeare around 55/66 i would continue tracking that wheel if lower i would skip that wheel (you only need 800/1000 trails for that).
So how do you know when to track a wheel for a weak bias if you not using defect spotting.
You need indications like math values and probability to tell you if you are going to skip following a wheel or continue.
I cant see you do that without defect spotting - find a wheel with a weak bias.[/quote]

Ok, so 800 to 1000 trials would indicate whether the wheel maybe bias to which you now want to confirm before risking any bankroll? Still a big time investment!

I have tested many strengths of bias within smaller data sets. What I found formed my opinion that raw data is not possible to tell smaller bias from random, what you are saying from the other end is you can tell 95%, 96%, 97%, 98% random from 100% random!? under what circumstances, a single number with a strength of 5% ROI or a sector? Bias strength to me is the conditions a bias can be activated to create expected ROI = strength. A 3% single number bias would be hard to play anyway, begin playing at a point you experience a draw down and it may end in tears even with an edge but at what point can a bias be strong without being visable?

Without a solid reason to be near a wheel in which case taking numbers is no hardship, I would certainly advise not to follow the pelayo way of play. I would find more interesting what strength of bias can be present if not visable? At the end of the day, if you want a bias wheel, just go to the casino. If you want a playable bias it might not be so easy, especially if a single player with limited bank and time. I know there are a few clever bias players around, I doubt they are playing in ways discussed here though.

Tracking biased wheels, with defect spotting, still requires more spins than most people realize.

Tracking biased wheels, with defect spotting, still requires more spins than most people realize.
Ok here all is clear more spins - more good result or say more true.

But here is one but …

No mater in which way we detected bias, say we detected from 500 spins, then we look next 500 and we confirm that. But we track more with say one day gap and we not know what was in that day. Now imagine that in that day something changes, say wheel are moved slightly or something else. We colect more and bias disapear or migrate to other numbers/ zone.
In such situattion some spins are for us worthless and by tracking we lost oportunity to win.

So we always are against two decissions track more to be more sure , but risk that something can change and we lost oportunity to play or say to use old data, or to play on small data which is not so certain but it is fresh and we know that after that data nothing with wheel happend.

Unless you know the physical cause, 500 spins is far too few spins.

A slight movement of the wheel shouldn’t affect the kind of biases that you’re looking to play. If you have detailed marks, and notes on the various wheel components, then you should be able to tell when something has happened to the wheel that will affect it.

I’m sure you know, even biased numbers will bob up an down in random swings. (Variance) However, some people expect the numbers to be performing even in small samples, which is not always going to happen.

I'm sure you know, even biased numbers will bob up an down in random swings. (Variance)
For sure. But that only prove that we cant say which number of spins are enough, therefore can be situattions when 500 is more than enough but the same can be that 5000 is not enough. I never play direct bias- always in combinattion with Vb. So i not have time to colect many and not have who that can do for me. Because of that i created method how to spot some bias in very fast way. Sure, sometimes that method fail, but that is not big damage for me, because much more often it gives me wins. And what is most important - it not take time from me.

Although 5000 spins is much more predictive than only 500.

Once you’ve adequately profiled a wheel, you only need light maintenance tracking before playing.

Although 5000 spins is much more predictive than only 500.
Sure, but 15000 is better than 5000. So where is end ? If look simply to numbers - 500 is nothing, but if look to all ball bahaviour in very detail, can be way which can show something what is almoust the same or sometimes even more right from even very small amount of spins, than from huge amount of spins if to look only to numbers.

The more spins, the better. What most people miss is that we must pay attention to maintenance, and recognize when it has taken place. By simply keeping better track of wheel id marks, the visible defects, etc… we can keep the data fresh, and useful.

For what it’s worth, on some wheels in my archives I have over 100k spins. On one wheel we have 350k spins.
Yes, maintenance took place over several intervals during the time period, but the long term biased numbers, for the most part, persisted. When something like a pocket insert is reglued and positioned, you can spot that it has happened. Other major maintenance rarely actually takes place on the casino floor.

-Keyser