Wheel from XX XX

Advanced roulette play
1

XX XXsend me these numbers and asked me to post them here with a comment. Its usually not a good idea to have it out in the open, but here we go anyway.

[table][tr][td]

[sub] — Actual #'s hit —
Count

entered Other data Total Ratio St. dev.

0 415 0 415 34,03 1,73
32 400 0 400 35,31 0,95
15 452 0 452 31,25 3,65
19 366 0 366 38,59 -0,82
4 346 0 346 40,82 -1,85
21 396 0 396 35,67 0,74
2 396 0 396 35,67 0,74
25 420 0 420 33,63 1,99
17 352 0 352 40,13 -1,54
34 403 0 403 35,05 1,10
6 371 0 371 38,07 -0,56
27 360 0 360 39,23 -1,13
13 365 0 365 38,70 -0,87
36 375 0 375 37,66 -0,35
11 388 0 388 36,40 0,33
30 361 0 361 39,12 -1,08
8 389 0 389 36,31 0,38
23 387 0 387 36,50 0,27
10 380 0 380 37,17 -0,09
5 402 0 402 35,13 1,05
24 366 0 366 38,59 -0,82
16 386 0 386 36,59 0,22
33 367 0 367 38,49 -0,76
1 383 0 383 36,88 0,07
20 390 0 390 36,22 0,43
14 344 0 344 41,06 -1,96
31 398 0 398 35,49 0,84
9 389 0 389 36,31 0,38
22 346 0 346 40,82 -1,85
18 357 0 357 39,56 -1,28
29 394 0 394 35,85 0,64
7 397 0 397 35,58 0,79
28 388 0 388 36,40 0,33
12 376 0 376 37,56 -0,30
35 366 0 366 38,59 -0,82
3 387 0 387 36,50 0,27
26 366 0 366 38,59 -0,82

/sub]
Total 14.124 0 14.124

High 452 0 452 3,65
Low 344 0 344 -1,96

[b]Chance of
random (1/x) 1,339E+01 1,339E+01
Chi square 48,86 48,86

Average 381,73 0,00 381,73
Break even 392,33 0,00 392,33

80% hi conf. 429,91 0,00 429,91
95% hi conf. 439,55 0,00 439,55
80% low conf. 333,55 0,00 333,55
95% low conf. 323,91 0,00 323,91

Best ratio 31,25 31,25
Worst ratio 41,06 41,06
[/b]

Quick conclusion:

There could be something fishy going on at #15. It looks like it receives hits from number 4 and 19 as they are a bit down for the moment. I haven`t been able to run a number strenght test, so all i got is the count on the numbers. The Chi Square is around 48 so it is approaching the 55 benchmark for a biased number.

I would look carefully in the area from 3, 26, 0, 32, 15, 19, 4, 21. Look for the pocket bottoms and frets. Do the pocket bottoms look even ? Could there be air trapped underneath the pocket bottoms ? (Gives a hollow ssound when the ball hits). Look for marks on the rotor especially on the cone (center part of rotor) that you can relate to the numbers if they decide to either move the rotor or turn the number ring.

Now, just a wild educated guess: Is this yyy at xxxxxxxxxx? The yyy2 wheel used to have a long scratch pointing towards number 27. Sort of a zig zag/lightning scratch also more important, 2 straight scratches pointing towards 24. A wild guess is that the straight scratches is now pointing towards number 15 area

Well, i don`t even know if the wheel is old LOL, just a wild guess. [/td][/tr][/table]

2

HAHAHAHAHAHA

You should have seen my face when i read last part of your post :o :o

YES IT IS xxxxxxxxxx wheel xxxxx

Hey and thx for acting quickly and posting the wheel info for me

the wheel rotor is made from what i can only describe as aluminium and pockets are felted and just on the outer part of the wheel between number ring and where Ball falls off also alu ring that is not molded but has a badly formed join

Thats all the info i can give at present

thx once again

3

Go for it then. Its not the first time xxx kicks out, but do me a favour, look for the scratches next time you go there. If they are still located at 24 and 27, it means that the earlyer bias has moved for some other reason than a turn of the number ring. Its a 12 hour drive to go to Berlin and judging from your nick, you would be closer than i am.

Its only a small casino, so i don`t know wether you can get away with playing a concentrated bias play for a longer time. The cone is metal, so the bias is most likely located in the pockets or frets.

NOTE: You might be able to keep your bankroll more stable if you imply a simpel dealer signature. There is no reason to have maximum bets on when the probability is low. But keep a low bet on the number also on low prob. spins, just not your maximum. A bit bigger bet if the signature indicates your area.

4

The wheel holds ~ +7% edge on a 3 number sector with 32 as center number. A 7% edge using Kelly betting on the 3 number sector looks like this:
(35 - 2)/3
A = 33/3 = 11 It will then give the formula
f* = 7%/11 = 0.63 %

So he would be betting 0.63% of his bank in each spin. Lets say 5000 Euro. 5000* 0.63% = 31 = 30 Euro pr spin or 3 x 10 Euro

A 7% edge will also create 1.1 times the bankroll pr. 500 spins using Kelly Criterion. (5000 will be 5500 etc. On average that is)

A staking plan starting with 10`s pr. number will be pretty slow in the beginning but it will soon pick up.

5

[quote=“Kelly, post:4, topic:288”]The wheel holds ~ +7% edge on a 3 number sector with 32 as center number. A 7% edge using Kelly betting on the 3 number sector looks like this:
(35 - 2)/3
A = 33/3 = 11 It will then give the formula
f* = 7%/11 = 0.63 %

So he would be betting 0.63% of his bank in each spin. Lets say 5000 Euro. 5000* 0.63% = 31 = 30 Euro pr spin or 3 x 10 Euro

A 7% edge will also create 1.1 times the bankroll pr. 500 spins using Kelly Criterion. (5000 will be 5500 etc. On average that is)

A staking plan starting with 10`s pr. number will be pretty slow in the beginning but it will soon pick up.[/quote]

The only sector to be played is 0-32-15, no other sector has an edge.

A 3 number sector is dangerous to play because you have to surf the dispersion.

You need a stronger BR to do it in case of a long sleep until they come.

6

Yeah, you are to some extend correct, it depends on a lot of things though. Are we gonna play the wheel for 2000 spins or 10.000 spins. The 3 standard deviation limits are quite different when the spin sample is extended.

Basieux made a table for how long a negative 3 standard deviation can keep your bankroll negative if you are playing with an edge.

Edge…Spins

2%…15176
4%…7732
6%…5251
8%…4010
10%…3265
15%…2272
20%…1776
25%…1478
30%…1279

So basicly, you can expect in worst case scenario to NOT have a profit after some 4500 spins with a 7% edge.

The bankroll calculation also has something to do with your calculated risk of ruin.

1% risk of ruin on 3 numbers with a 5% edge = 1542 units bankroll
5% risk of ruin on 3 numbers with a 5% edge = 1003 units bankroll
10% risk of ruin on 3 numbers with a 5% edge = 771 units bankroll

So a suggestion would be to go for the 10% risk of ruin but using Kelly which means that 771 units could easyli be divided into 1500 units, giving a 1% risk of ruin.

7

Hi lads and thx for the response

any news on the number strength test Kelly

and maybe you could explain a little to me of what is involved with such a test

can also give you the spins as the came off the board

did here that some ppl can tell if the # ring has been rotated and also we can check for cw and ac for the appearance in our bias numbers

8

Yes i need the numbers as they appear, number by number, day by day to do the number strenght test. The only way we can separate CW and CCW spins is by watching the wheel by eye. They sometimes spin twice in the same direction in there, but you are correct, we would probably have a much stronger bias if the spins were separated.

Forester can you please remove the location and wheel number. I can`t edit the post.

PS: Funny how the biased numbers went to sleep last night, just 2 days after posting the location. Spys in here ?? Or coincidence.

9

Hi kelly

check you email please

10

You should be able to edit your posts,
but please do not start deleting your posts, if there are replays.

11

Hi Kelly, remember that me and my friend was searching and tracking wheels? We think we have found something interesant. We tracking about 12.000 spins on a scalloped wheel. Our chi square is interesant, up to 80, we have separated by ball directions. There is a very bad zone from 1 to 12, that dont have all the hits that should be, when i see the wheel is shightly more up at the 9-22 zone…but the rest of numbers are normal, one day hit ones, another day others. We think that the wheel is anti biased, in the zone to 1 to 12…the rest of numbers ones are upper the mean but with SD in maximun case about 3, i think is low for 12000 spins, for that i think that the wheel is not biased, its anti biased, i think i will win played all the rest of numbers, but i need a lot of bankroll…any kind of idea of how play? :slight_smile:

12

I got the data XX XX, thanks. I used to have a program from bliss that would seperate all the dealer shifts and all other data in the sheet so the numbers were left alone. Then i could simply cut and paste it directly into excel. I can`t find it on the hard disk, but im trying to get a new one. It will make future number tracking much easyer and i will be able to paste all your data direct in 10 minutes. Otherwise its gonna take 3 full days :slight_smile: + my own data from the last 3 days of play.

PS: Forester, no i can only edit my last post in the string. As soon as there is another post, i can`t edit anymore.

13

Hi Kelly

thx again for your time and effort

mate of mine on www.vlsroulette.com told me about tools from grabb

he says it can identify number ring changes from day to day

plus has many other features that can be applied for bias

hope this was of some help

thanking you for your response in advance

PS i forgot to mention it can also be downloaded at the above mention site

14

Here is a direct link to Grabb’s tools: http://vlsroulette.com/grabb/

Regards,
Marven

15

I have used Spinos/Grabs tools a lot in the past but he took his web page down. Although i got my own tools, its sometimes refreshing to see the same data in another view like grabs.
i got the program now, i just have some problems running it, but bliss has posted a dll file that should help but im not up and running yet.

Toby, your wheel can be on soon. I might have some spare time tonight.

16

[quote=“Kelly, post:15, topic:288”]I have used Spinos/Grabs tools a lot in the past but he took his web page down. Although i got my own tools, its sometimes refreshing to see the same data in another view like grabs.

i got the program now, i just have some problems running it, but bliss has posted a dll file that should help but im not up and running yet.

Toby, your wheel can be on soon. I might have some spare time tonight.[/quote]

Ok, I’ve got more decitions to add if you need.

17

OK Kelly and thx

will l ¶ ¶k forward to your analsys

bye for now

18

Any news on the wheel ? The bias appears to be totally gone.

PS: Anything else interesting? If there is, please only on e mail. Also last updates would be appreciated. New wheels, tilts, bias, late NMB.

19

Forget about any bias on this wheel. Im just back from XXXX and i checked it out. Its a newer Klaus wheel, and Chris tells me, one of the most expensive of the Klaus wheels. 17600 Euro… for a new one. The rotor has a grey chromed surface instead of the shiny ones that you can use as a mirror. There are NO signs what so ever of a bias in the XXXX or any of the other wheels in XXXXXXX but the bounce is nice compared to the Cammegh wheels in Hamburg.

20

Hi Kelly
ive been approached by the German side

can you contact one of them

Regards securityman

ps nice to hear you still get around :wink: