I’d like to have your views on what a typical bankroll should look like on a $5 table playing say 5 number sectors.
It’s obvious that you must hit once in 7 spins to break kinda even. Where do you allow it to go to though. Let’s say I play 7 spins and 4 out of those 7 spins I missed by 1-3 pockets and the other 3 spins were further out. Would you have a typical 50 spin session? Would you stop if you never hit in 14 spins? What would your bankroll be for the session? With VB I have had session starting with say $200 and ending well in the K’s. Then again I have had sessions on the same wheel where I seem to always miss by 1-3 pockets. ( ;D even if I make the sector bigger to 9 numbers ;D)
To play with a recognisable advantage you would need 1:30 so in your case 1:6 hits on 5 pockets.
We were discussing it some time ago. According to some of Kellie’s calculation with such advantage and playing $25 per spin you would need $25 be about 6% of your bankroll, so the answer might be around $500 bankroll. And I would agree with that even I do not play with a constant bet value.
Sample that we may play during a single night is small, roulette is a game of many possibilities even we might have an advantage still anything might happen.
With better conditions possibility of wins increasing exponentially, but often we play with the best we currently have, which makes things harder.
"Would you stop if you never hit in 14 spins?"
Surely it depends of mood and thoughts but in usual I wouldn’t.
I experienced much worst and still managed to win.
I do not count spins or wins when I play, but I would say sometimes I didn’t have a hit for 30 spins.
Since I do not distribute chips equally, some numbers might have 5 chips some only half , if after 20 spins the ball stops on a number where you have only half chip you can’t really count it as a hit. Winning 17 chips often it wouldn’t cover amount of chips I placed.
"With VB I have had session starting with say $200 and ending well in the K's. Then again I have had sessions on the same wheel where I seem to always miss by 1-3 pockets. ( even if I make the sector bigger to 9 numbers )
"
I am afraid that’s how it is.
I may play and ball start going mostly 5 extra pockets, I may readjust it and next spins when the ball stops close to sector it stays shorter. Chasing the offset.
It is a bit tricky especially with VB if we do not use an electronics timer as a reference. We don’t know if it is the wheel / ball makes change (a coincidence) or if it is our counting for the reference time.
Well, you can look at it this way, if you have decided that you will play for 2 hours or some 80 spins, and you anticipate that you are being dealt roughly 40 spins which falls into a category that you will play, specific wheel speed or whatever, you know up front that if you play 5 number sectors worst case scenario is a loss of 200 units.
[b]Now, after 1 hours play, you check your records of what has happened.
How did these first 20 spins perform within an anticipated 9 number sector ? (where you have your 5 number sector inside)
Are you sure you still have an edge ?
If so, did you get as many hits as anticipated when reading your tracking ?
The non hits, was it rollers, wrong DD or what was it ?
If you are unsure wether your edge is still there, break up before time and take the loss.
If you are sure you have an edge, continue for the full 2 hours and only break up if you are uncertain about something. But stick to the 2 hours you decided for first unless you are winning, then continue until you feel you get too much attention or are uncertain wether you are able to carry that much money on your own.
[/b]
I thought $1000 on $5 table should be sufficient. Evaluating after 20 spins sounds good (5 number sector with virtual 2 number either side) Will give it a go that way.
Rule of thump: First you must decide Risk of Ruin. Imgine we set it to 5% then the bankroll should be 322 units if you bet 5 numbers.
Another rule of thump from laurances books:
Set your overall bankroll at 1000 units.
Bet 1 unit pr number per 5% expected edge.
Example: Expected edge 15% = 3 units per number. = 9 units if you play 3 numbers or 15 if you play 5 numbers.
As for the unit size, you might wanna adopt the Kelly Criterion, described somewhere in here.
But again, always keep in mind what your expected hit rate should be according to the tracking and make small notes to the spins that doesn`t perform as they should. If you are losing, something is not going as it did during the tracking and you might have tracked too little.
If so, did you get as many hits as anticipated when reading your tracking ?
The non hits, was it rollers, wrong DD or what was it ?[/b]
That’s about it.
I play a bit more aggressively but still following some rules,
I may start with small bets around 10 units. Units are not equally distributed some numbers may have 2 chips some 1 some ½ or even corners. After some time I may use 15-20 units. If everything goes right for example make a profit 100 units I may hit few next spins with extra 20 units per spin.
Placing 40 units per spin some numbers may have straight 6-7 units some few splits.
If everything is as planned it results in fast bankroll grow, if not it takes me back to start.
If the loss was clearly because of some bad spins I may still continue playing with more chips then assess it again.
-Spinners,
-or a good hit but I missed to place chips on that number,
-NMB but I was about to place chip there,
-missed by few pockets because of slightly different ball jump.
Also some spins I may reduce bets simply because they look different, mostly because rotor speed is very different.
I would say I am pretty much even lately with wins and losses. I attribute this though to exposing too a little br at a time.
Evaluating my ‘Strike numbers’ I’m pretty damn accurate. Yes, my favourite Saturn I’m playing I have taken kinda a back seat on. They do turn the wheels alot and i think overall maintenance is pretty good. The wheels are all 10 years + old. This specific wheel still has the same DD BUT for some or other reason it suddenly is producing alot of spinners. So I’m playing a different wheel currently and just keeping an eye on my former favourite.
I found that many readers not understand the meaning of Kelly bet. Kelly bet is such amount in from your bankroll which leads to fastest growth of your capital with as possible lowest risk of ruin. The simplest formula of Kelly bet is such C= (KV-1)/K-1
Where K is coefficient of payment and V is expectation to win for player. So lets say for example that player bets on half wheel and cover 18 pockets. This way K is 2 because player bets 18 units and after success he will have 36. Now lets say that player has 10 edge over casino. In such situation he must win 55 times and lost 45 times. So his K= 0.55. And lets say player has 1000$. Kelly bet is optimal bet for him and it is this
C=(20.55-1)/(2-1)=(1,1-1)/1=0.1 0,11000$ =100$ so 100$ is his optimal bet. What I can say from mine experience Kelly bet is quite aggressive so myself I usually use 1/2 of Kelly bet or even less, but all that depends on concreate situation. And you must remember that optimal bat is changing duering play. If your bankroll is growing then bet also grow up if you lost and bankroll becomes less then also bet is go down.
And say if you bet only one number and have 20% edge then bet must be this C= (36*(1/30)-1)/(36-1)=0.2/35=0.0057 0.0057*1000$ = 5.7$
[quote=“bebediktus, post:10, topic:663”]I found that many readers not understand the meaning of Kelly bet. Kelly bet is such amount in from your bankroll which leads to fastest growth of your capital with as possible lowest risk of ruin. The simplest formula of Kelly bet is such C= (KV-1)/K-1
Where K is coefficient of payment and V is expectation to win for player. So lets say for example that player bets on half wheel and cover 18 pockets. This way K is 2 because player bets 18 units and after success he will have 36. Now lets say that player has 10 edge over casino. In such situation he must win 55 times and lost 45 times. So his K= 0.55. And lets say player has 1000$. Kelly bet is optimal bet for him and it is this
C=(20.55-1)/(2-1)=(1,1-1)/1=0.1 0,11000$ =100$ so 100$ is his optimal bet. What I can say from mine experience Kelly bet is quite aggressive so myself I usually use 1/2 of Kelly bet or even less, but all that depends on concreate situation. And you must remember that optimal bat is changing duering play. If your bankroll is growing then bet also grow up if you lost and bankroll becomes less then also bet is go down.
And say if you bet only one number and have 20% edge then bet must be this C= (36*(1/30)-1)/(36-1)=0.2/35=0.0057 0.0057*1000$ = 5.7$[/quote]
Thanx guys. Valuable info.