# Tobys Wheel

[b]As you can all see, Toby has a very strong wheel. Just look at the Chi Square…
I got no idea what causes the bias, since i haven`t seen the wheel, but it certainly favours sectors. Maybe a rotor wobble or a cone defect. Again, it depends on a lot of things. If there is hardly no scatter, the cone won`t have much effect because the ball doesn`t travel much on the cone. A biased wheel is better played when its spun faster so the ball will hit the biased sections more often preferbly with a lightweight ball. A heavy (dense mass) ball will weaken the effect. A slow ball and a slow wheel and a steady drop is great for a VB player but the bias player will have to focus on defect frets or pocket bottoms only and is not likely to be able to explore an entire biased sector even though it might technically be there.

Alternatively to play the actual biased numbers, he can play a 7 number sector with either 9, 22 or 18 as center number. A 7 number sector with these center numbers holds the following SD`s.:

9…9.55 SD
22…9.98 SD
18…8.12 SD
[/b]

NOTE:

#22 has a count of 13666 as a number sector, which is achieved by multiplying the 7 single counts on each number in the 1 pocket chart/sheet shown in the top of the post. # 9 has a count of 13623 and # 18 has a count of 13478.

Thanks Kelly, what about 26-0-32-15?

0-32 are really strong numbers, a 4 number sector of them could give extra profit.

7-29 are weak but are on the 7 numbers sector.

Money management?

I can`t display a 4 number sector right away, but a 3 number sector looks like this and ain`t bad at all.

Money management would be Kelly betting or pyramid betting with the highest biased number with the highest stake.

wondeiing if you can separate CW and ACW

Nope, we would have to watch the wheel. 1 double spin and the rest of the spins would be wrong.

It might feel better to play a 3 number section but you would win some 5000 units more on the 7 number sector. (Using payout 35, not 36 as we have to pay 1 unit tax over here…)

7 number sector = 23725 units
3 number sector = 18887 units

Best choice probably
2 x 3 number sector ( 32 and 9 as center number) = 26070 units

Kelly betting for the 3 number sector.

66893 spins
Wager 66893 X 3 units = 200679 units
Profit 18887 units
Edge 18887X100/200679 = 9.4% edge

(35 - 2)/3
A = 33/3 = 11 It will then give the formula
f* = 9.4%/ 11 = 0.85 %

So if your bank is 10.000 you bet 85 pr. bet. Roughly 30 pr number.

If the minimum is 5 pr number you will be betting 30 pr number until your bank is roughly 9100 or 9000 depending on how close you wanna get to the value. 0.85% * 9000 = 76.5 = 25 pr. number. On the winning side you will be playing with 30 pr. number until your bank is roughly 12000 where 12000*0.85% = 102 = 35 pr. number.

Now, its pretty easy to make levels to watch out for. Obviously, if you play a wheel where minimum is 1 or 2, there will be plenty of opportunitys to change the bet size compared to a minimum of 5.

Personally i made a credit card size betting scheme to bring along but usually i don`t change the bet size more than 2 - 3 times in one night.

So the best choice is to bet 2 units each on the 3 number sector and 3 units on the 7 number sector.

Kelly criterion applyied to its %.

Calculate our bets every time we can divide the chip or add units weighing the better numbers first. The other option is differencial betting starting with 1 more unit on #32-0-9.

Many modalities, isn`t it?

Kelly betting for 2 X 3 number sections

[i]66893 spins
Wager 66893 X 6 units = 401358 units
Profit 26070 units
Edge 26070X100/401358 = 6.5 edge [/i] [b](35 - 5)/6 A = 30/6 = 5 It will then give the formula f* = 6.5/ 5 = 1.3 %
[/b]
So if your bank is 10.000 you bet 130 pr. bet. Roughly 20 pr number.

If the minimum is 5 pr number you will be betting 20 pr number until your bank is roughly 7500 depending on how close you wanna get to the value. 1.3 * 7500 = 97.5 = 15 pr. number. On the winning side you will be playing with 20 pr. number until your bank is roughly 12000 where 12000*1.3 = 156 = 25 pr. number.

There are plenty of ways to do it as you say. Basicly its just as important to play with bet sizes and a modus operandi which is comfortable. To avoid mistakes.

[quote=“Kelly, post:9, topic:294”]Kelly betting for 2 X 3 number sections

[i]66893 spins
Wager 66893 X 6 units = 401358 units
Profit 26070 units
Edge 26070X100/401358 = 6.5 edge [/i] [b](35 - 5)/6 A = 30/6 = 5 It will then give the formula f* = 6.5/ 5 = 1.3 %
[/b]
So if your bank is 10.000 you bet 130 pr. bet. Roughly 20 pr number.

If the minimum is 5 pr number you will be betting 20 pr number until your bank is roughly 7500 depending on how close you wanna get to the value. 1.3 * 7500 = 97.5 = 15 pr. number. On the winning side you will be playing with 20 pr. number until your bank is roughly 12000 where 12000*1.3 = 156 = 25 pr. number.[/quote]

There is sth I don`t get.

My current game is:

BR10k, edge 7%(0-32-14-31-9-22-18), 20 units each, recalculate a new bet every 5 spins applying Kelly criterion.

BR5k, edge 2.5%,(26-15-7-29), 10 units each, flatbetting.

Does it fit the formulas?

7 Numbers
Edge 7% (coincidence lol)

(35 - 6)/7
A = 29/7 = 4.14 It will then give the formula
f* = 7%/ 4.14 = 1.69 %

10K = 169 pr. bet = 169/7 = 24 Pr. number

I don`t know how often you have to recalculate, it depends on the minimum wager on the table.

4 Numbers
2.5% edge
(35 - 3)/4
A = 32/4 = 8 It will then give the formula
f* = 2.5%/ 8 = 0.31 %

5K = 15.5 pr bet = ~ 4 Units pr. number

2 unit minimum.
10K Bank* 1.69% = 169/7 numbers = 24 Pr number

Next level will be around 92501.69% = 156/7 numbers = 22.33 ~ 22 units pr. number
Next level will be around 8300
1.69% = 140/7 numbers = 20 units pr. number
Next level will be around 7500*1.69% = 126/7 numbers = 18.1 ~ 18 units pr number

13350 = 32 pr. number
12450 = 30 pr. number
11600 = 28 pr number
10800 = 26 pr number
10000 = 24 pr number Starting point for the bankroll
9250 = 22 pr. number ( which means 4.5 losing bets between 24 and 22, you either round up or down to 4 or 5)
8300 = 20 pr. number (6.5 lb)
7500 = 18 pr. number (5.7 lb)
6600 = 16 pr. number (7.1 lb)
etc
etc

This is just a example with rough estimates, you can fine tune it yourself. The expectation is roughly 1 hit every 5th spin 37/7 = 5.28 and a little deduction since the edge is on your side, so 5 would be a good rough estimate.

NOTE: As the larger the bankroll is, also means that 1.69% has greater value so the jump between bank sizes will increase as the winnings increase. And as the bank becomes smaller, 1.69% means a smaller and smaller bank deduction between the bet size change.

Nope, we would have to watch the wheel. 1 double spin and the rest of the spins would be wrong.

It may be worth to watch it.
I believe one pick is when ball is CW and the other when it is ACW.

Even if you take data in few groups of 100 spins, it may tell you if results change for one or the other ball direction. If you get few groups where 50 spins ending at one pick and 50 at the other then it is ball direction related.

Sure you may have some groups disturbed if order of spins has been changed. But you have many spins and from that you should be able to find if 2 pick points have anything to do with ball direction.

Watching the wheel and seperating the spins is always number 1 choice, but i thought you meant if we could seperate spins in the collected spins so far. Unless Toby has such info, we can`t. If we do it now it will most likely produce wrong results by simply picking every second spin for one direction.

You still can try, he has many spins, and sector wider then 1 pocket.

If you make 50 groups of 200 spins, you simply can compare how may group’s makes that estimated CW creates different pick point then ACW, and how many is balanced.

Within each group of 200 spins odd spins should give advantage at different place different then even spins. If spins lost count then on the other group of 200 spins it may be opposite but it doesn’t matter since you only looking for differences.

You may find that advantage may increase more then double if spins are separated by ball direction.

If you expect that spins lose count of ball direction more often then within 200 spins than you can’t do it. Then the worst it could be that your analyses may show that the wheel bias is not dependant on ball direction, but it doesn’t have to be truth.

Correct, but it will still be asumptions. Out of pure luck we might find a correlation where CW and CCW could be seperated, but would the data still be trustworthy enough to put money on ? There are still a lack of data.

There is plenty of room for improvements:

1. There is a coloumn in the sheet where we can put the strike number in too. That way the sheet will discover if any sectors bounces more or less than others, which will help identify the bias.

2. Scratches that identifyes the wheel and wheel position versus the number ring.

3. Mapping of light reflexions.

4. Mapping of fret defects.

5. Etc.

If you play 20 spins per hour and 8 hours per day it would be 418 days.

It is win of 62 units per day, and if you play \$25 unit, it would be \$1560 per day.

If result of 2 pick points is because of CW and ACW and if they are not overlapping, if you separate spins the advantage from 6% would go to 14%. It looks as unreal.

Wondering for how many spins 6 numbers did not come.

Rotor always CW, ball always ACW.

LOL
then forget all my smart ideas ;D

Maybe you should look in to rotor speed.

Toby’s table probably is airball table
Such a tables are not so biased when you play them.