The laurance challenge


There is no such thing as a universal physical model of a roulette wheel, but there is still a place for STDEV analysis.

The control is not the wheel, but rather the house edge.

Given a random environment, play over 5,000 spins (00 wheel) should yield a result very close to 5.26% against the player. The laws of statistics dictate how significant this result is. If the house edge is overcome with only one number being bet, even 5,000 spins can be iffy. If 1/2 of the wheel is bet it would take the random event of the 22nd century to overcome the house edge just by chance alone.

Regardless if a device is used or not, if a player should sit down and play 5 numbers over 5,000 spins at $1 per number and walk away from the casino up $1,250 (5% edge) I hope we could all agree that this was not accomplished by chance alone.

Exactly what caused the advantage to occur will continue to be the subject of hot debate.

Should someone want to challenge me on this, I am willing to play a game under the following conditions:

  1. I get to pick the wheel I play out of a population of at least 5 wheels actually in play, and reserve the right to declare defeat right up front.

  2. I get to record data over 2,500 spins with the same dealers that will be used to deal the actual game.

  3. We play for 5,000 spins, and I am required to bet every spin

  4. I am allowed to bet up to three revolutions before the ball drops

  5. The ball in play will not be switched out

  6. The wheel will not be moved in any manner once data recording begins

  7. The ball will always be spun so it goes around the wheel between 10 and 15 revolutions

  8. The wheel will always be spinning between 1.8 and 3.5 seconds per revolution.

  9. I am allowed to vary my bet from the table minimum to the table maximum.

  10. I must bet at least 5 numbers on every bet.

Given these conditions (and, I don’t run away with my tail between my legs after the initial evaluation), I will state categorically that I will walk away from the game with 5% more money than I wagered.

No computer required.

Here’s the hitch: If I win, I get to keep the money and if I achieve a wire to wire 5% edge you pay my travel expenses. If I lose, I lose and you get my money. I pay for travel, and walk away wimpering with my tail between my legs.

Be very, very careful in considering this challenge. Suppose an edge really manifests itself 2,000 spins into the game. You are agreeing to let me bet at table maximums for the remaining 3,000 spins without taking any countermeasures. That could wipe out your bankroll.

If the edge is just not coming up, I bet 3,000 spins at the table minimum and take my lumps for a few hundred, a bruised ego and travel expenses.

Any takers? How much faith do you really have that this is all smoke and mirrors?


here is the link

29th August 2005, I remember that :slight_smile:

I remember this aswell

I didn’t know that you are so old :smiley:

ha ha LOL. 2005 feels like 80 years ago.

What happened?

Nobody gave him opportunity to play.

haha well it was sure interesting enough,

I would have loved to see the results on that one lol

They would stop him!
I know that Laurance is a skilled player and eh played a lot.

Also some time ago made a video spins but with removed last 2-3 ball rotations.
It was competition who can predict without knowing results.
Laurance participated and got all spins well predicted.

Hard to know whether Laurance can defeat or not a random wheel with 5% profit after 5k.

No doubt he can do so on a known wheel.