# Return and risk given positive odds

RETURN

The expected profit from having a positive odds on the casino is simply that positive odds times the total amount of money bet. Regardless if you bet \$10 000 at once or \$100 on 100 different occasions

Given a wheel w/o a double zero which pays 36 times the money when winning on a single number, the return is simply calculated as 36 divided by the odds you have. If you have the 1/35 chance to guess the right number given you technique, then your return is 36/35 = 2.8%. Some other examples for different odds and cash profit if you bet 10 000 (say, 100 times \$100):
1/34 -> 5.9% -> \$590
1/33 -> 9.1% -> \$910
1/32 -> 12.5% -> \$1 250
1/31 -> 16.3% -> \$1 630

1/25 -> 44% -> \$4 400

So, it is obvious that any improvement on the odds is worth A LOT! Small odds gove profit which one has to work hard for. Better odds substantially improves the return ratio.

RISK

It is possible, that even if you have good odds, you might get unluck and loose your whole budget on a long string of losses. This risk is radically greater than most people might think. The formula would be (1-(1/odds)^number of losses in a row), where “odds” is for example 33 if you have 1/33 to guess the right number.

Here is a small table for some odds and probabilities for loosing strings:

1/35 -> 23 losses in a row -> 50% probability
1/35 -> 77 losses in a row -> 10% probability
1/35 -> 100 losses in a row -> 5.5% probability

1/33 -> 22 losses in a row -> 50% probability
1/33 -> 75 losses in a row -> 10% probability
1/33 -> 100 losses in a row -> 4.6% probability

1/30 -> 20 losses in a row -> 50% probability
1/30 -> 68 losses in a row -> 10% probability
1/30 -> 100 losses in a row -> 3.4% probability

There IS a substantial risk to loose even 100 times in a row, even with an odds of 1/30 in roulette! With that odds, on average you would profit 20% on everything you bet. But there is a 1 in 29 chance that you still loose one hundered times in a row! Betting \$100 each time, would take you down with \$10 000, even though your predicition worked by the book, giving you 1/30 odds compared to the natural 1/37 odds.

A single digit percetage risk might maybe is acceptable. But the 10% probability for any odds worse than 1/30 to generate a string of 70 or so losses in a row, should be a WARNING! Conservative money management is necessary. Half of the gambling evenings, you will start out with more than 20 losses in a row. Every ten times with about 70 losses in a row. And if you make it a habit, you will sometimes see 100 losses in a row, even when everything is as it is supposed to be!

So, to be a bit safe, do not bet more than 1% of your betting budget at once. Do it daily, and you will leave the table bancrupt only once per month if you have 1/30 or worse odds on the casino…

Above, I assume one bets only at the one most likely number predicted. Covering the nubers neighbouring the predicted number on the wheel, would substantially lower the risk, the probability for long strings of losses. But it would also reduce the expected profit a bit. Money management wise, it would certainly be worth it.

But what about getting caught because you are obviously betting neighbouring numbers on the wheel? An experienced croupier should see it right away, that you are not betting birthday dates, but potential drop zones on a tiltet wheel or something like that? And a security analysis of the video tapes would see the same thing if that table would loose unusually much to you.

Is it safe to bet neighbouring numbers? Noone ever had any troubles from that?

Is that mean that to play \$100 per spin I would need \$10 000 for start.
I think it may be case if \$100 is placed only on 1 number.
But if it is across 7-8 numbers odds should change.

No matter how hard we trying to predict roulette are always full of surprises. Imagine getting 80% of final results in section of 16 numbers from prediction and still lose.
The ball simply does not like wherever chips are and stops 1-2 numbers from predicted sector.
Or if we miss to place chips on one number ball stops there. Then finally one stops correctly but on split bet with the loves amount of chips.
Did casino somehow interfere? Of course not.
How do I know?
Simply because I observed that phenomena more. With missed number I found out that I notice it more often when I did not place chip and that number come. If comes one where I placed many chips I forget about the other one and do not notice it because it does not hurt.
With ball all the time missing by 1-2 numbers, it is happening and it’spure luck. Sometimes ball stops on covered numbers more then what it should.
2 days ago I was doing some test on video spins. Each time when ball hits diamond it was spot on prediction, scatter was somewhere in between 0-20 numbers.
I looked how many times I will get it within 5 numbers sector. After few spins I readjust it but then ball simply were stopping on previous place. So I hit the sector only 2 times in 20 spins, and all remaining spins were just few numbers away. If I played I would lose, if I played and covered 20 numbers I would win 90% of spins.
But on long run I should be still better of by playing 5-7 numbers.