Probability Question 2

Hey! What is the probability of winning 250 units (or more) after 151 spins of an unbiased wheel if Im betting on 5 numbers on each spin (1 unit per number). Do you think winning 250 units after 151 spins betting on only 5 numbers has any significance? Thanks!

There is no significance. In order to have statistical significance, the probabilty need to be less than 1% or more than 3 S.D.

Answer is 0.05=5% probability

You can also use central limit therom to approximate binomial distribution with normal distribution when smalle size is large, lets say n >=100

When I read such questions, I always think what aim can have that man who asks such question … ?
Why 250 but not 249 , or 251 …? Why 151, but not 150 or 152 …?
Why did he not apply quite a simple formula and not calculate himself, or why did he not ask that question on some AI site ?
And finally - somebody calculated the probability - what benefit from that?

Maybe the answer is right, but it is not clear counting. Much simpler and clearer is to count simply a chance of losing 123 or more times…and that will be simply the sum of losing 123, 124,125… and so on

I think you can actually determine whether one is playing a losing game or winning game. Lets say if you are winning at 3.s.d or more, then looks like you have an advantage. On the other hand, if you are within 3.s.d, and -3s.d., you might be playing a random wheel. If you are playing a wheel with less than -3s.d., you are playing a losing game with maybe very high negative expentancy.

However, it is not accurate if sample size is small. Try 10000spins and you can see something.

I knew a guy called victor yu aka lyeboyn who claimed to be a professional at blackjack. However,

  1. I never saw him won
  2. I never win betting behind him
  3. He claimed that he is at -4s.d or higher.
  4. He is charging people 4000u.s.d for a course for roulette where one can find information on this forum. Looks like one would not be doing this if he can win at the casino that money in 15 mins.

Why for me do something to determine who plays a losing game and who - winning the game? What is the benefit for me to know that? Everyone can play as he wants - that is his matter.
Nobody in the casino calculates STD and a player easily can win much less than what says 3STD and be a great winner.
There are other methods how to detect if the wheel is profitable for the concrete player, or not, and usually that is not related to statistical counts.

Well, the casino does! If you are winning at 3s.d. of above for a sufficiently large sample size, and they track your winnings, you would be banned!

A wheel is beatable doesnt mean one can beat it! It is not beatable if

  1. A player keep predicting the wrong place the ball exit the ball track at a percentage higher than 50%, 60%, etc.
  2. The scatter is inconsistent with certain dealers
  3. Your winnings dont justify your travel expenses and opportuniy cost of time.

Are very hard to understand what you want to say…in your words are no practical use.
What relationship are between wheel features and traveling costs :slight_smile: ?

Here are matters of every individual how he hides from the casino what he can do…
In 90% casinos ban people who gave them money…yes sometimes they ban those who can take money from them… but overall what they do is big damage for them…

If someone tell me a wheel is beatable in america but i am in asia, looks like i better off travelling to nearer places unless the opportunity is very good and there are many casinos with many wheela beatable while hotel and flight cost is managable.

Why do you write such things?
If somebody suggests you buy pants that you do not like,or which are too small to you, or which are too expensive, or which you simply do not need - you simply say that you do not need, not like, or too expensive. That is natural and does not need to go to the forum and write.
Forums are not for writing about natural for all-clear events.

If all will start to write in forums what he has eaten today, what he liked, and what not - forums lose that for what it is created.

What you write may be important and interesting for you, but not to others. Nobody is interested that in China the sun rises 8 hours earlier than in Europe. No need to write things that are natural and clear for most people.

In a forum much better to write about how to win, methods that you created or discovered.
But still firstly must check if that not was talked earlier, because usually in forums talk and talk about the same things over and over again…

Exactly, there is not much to talk about except the casinos and places which has opportunities. However, everyone is selfish and not willing to talk about it. If we group together, maybe we can make more! If we can create a system where giver can receive money and buyer can pay, it works good. Lets talk more about travelling, which cities are good, what opportunties are out there! Which casinos has a lot of wheels, etc, maybe in the private section. I have travelled to all casinos in macau, korea and will go to other countries soon.

Especially about casinos and good places not needed and nobody will talk. That is individual for everybody…
As I said if you will say that found some good wheels in Makao, or in Korea - that will not be interesting for most Europeans, because traveling costs and time are much more expensive than gain which is possible to take.
I do even not say that they first must believe in your words…
Looks like you do not understand what is possible to talk about and what players are interested in…

I just know that there exisit opportunities when there are a lot of wheels in that area and the casino allows your action for quite a while. The better thing is that the casino pr even invite you to play there!