Hi Forester
We have been discussed in the past how to calculate the SD, edges etc over the house, however I think we have to create another topic here to deal with our real advantages during our playing sessions by ‘GIVEN’ diamonds accuracy.
I believe most of the players have been through a lot up downs in their gaming history, in order to help players to have better ideas or to understand the reasons behind such swings, personally speaking, I highly recommend we need to take our ‘AVERAGE’ diamonds accuracy into count to obtain a more comprehensive image at what game we are playing rather than simply based on the advantages where we have our calculation on the paper.
Some players may see high edges from the scatters then decide to bang on their money on the number arches without thinking in fact that their diamonds accuracy in percentage is so important . Obviously, less diamonds, the better, however, once we are playing multiple diamonds game, the problem starts becoming more significant that we can not ignore the outcome with wrong diamonds hit because errors from sets at the beginning and bad clocking etc, those factors mislead us with wrong information or belief that we think we are still playing a positive EV game, however, we may not.
Wrong diamond can cause our betting into the positions where the potential negative EV are much worse than the house edges. Of course, we do get some compensations depend on if there are scatter overlaps or diamonds overlaps sometimes.
So here is my suggestion:
1, We have to know our average dd accuracy, what is the percentage we can hit the right diamonds based on the wheels we know and normally play.
2, The scatters we have collected in advance.
3, Calculate the advantages we may have when we can hit diamonds correctly .
4, Calculate the -‘EV’ we have when wrong diamonds predictions occur, and subtract from 3 above, this is very important. A lot players simply do the calculation wrongly, eg: scatter shows advantages 50%, diamond accuracy 60%,then the real advantages equal 50% x 60% = 30%, thats absolutely WRONG as those two are not PROPORTIONAL to each other. We really do need to know when wrong diamond happens, what is the real EV after subtraction is done, it is Not house edge game!!!
Forester, its the best if you can demonstrate the calculation once to us all and if this can be an additional feature to FF, as it knows the scatter, we just simply confirm if we hit the right diamonds or not. It will tell us the actual advantages we have.
I don’t calculate, it is too complicated. We have overlaps with wrong diamond and different ball jump, or wrong diamond 3/4 away and rotor movement.
There were times when with a much simpler system I could win.
Now is hard, it looks as it is ok but never know how the game after few hours will end.
.