New Discovery on Bias Wheels

Not sure if this is a new dicovery. I have found out that that

1.Wheel head wobble bias can be confirmed by having a strike number (first number that the ball impact the fret or pocket on the rotor) group that is pretty close to each other and near the low side of the rotor, this can be changed dynamically though with different rotor speed. (Low will stay low, tall will stay tall and they should be opposite each other on the wheel). This effect is streghthened when the ball is approaching the rotor at a rather shallow angle.

  1. I have created my own excel and used the sort and filter function to filter out similar rotor speeds, same strike number yardage data, ball size, angle of approach of the ball, clockwise or anti cw ball. In the casino’s point of view, there is no bias, however, under certain condition there is strong bias. It is very rare that a wheel can have a strong bias under all conditions although it exist.

  2. Pick the bias numbers on the same day (watch 100-200spins) within a section of a larger biased section (works too for weak biased section) under similar rotor speed/dealer. Watch closely on the strike number to final number distance and see if it matches the large sample of general data, if not, still play but with a smaller unit to the suspected migration section.

  3. For cone bias, it is only strong if the ball frequently travel up the cone, don’t play cone bias if the wheel has just been leveled/the ball is travelling at a shallow angle as this could happens short term.

  4. For pocket bias, the effect is stregthed especially when those numbers are located within the uphill section (the section of numbers just before the peak of the rotor) on the rotor with a wheel head wobble for a large ball. To those who don’t underdtand wheel head wobble, imagine you have just changed your tyres and you haven’t balanced your wheel, the wheel will wobble such that if you draw a red dot on the outer side of the tyre (3mm out), the red dot will stay 3mm out even when the wheel is spinning. For a smaller ball on a wheel with lower fret at the front of the pocket, the pocket bias will be strengthed when past the peak of the rotor as the ball takes a shortcut through the front of the pocket where the front is lower or the low part of the cone and will travel to the back of the pocket when travelling down hill on the rotor where the frets are taller and will likely to stop!.

  5. Sometimes i note that too much data is not always beneficial, it is good to play bias in the shortest time possible as conditions aren’t likely to change a lot. Even so, it is easential to notice the ball’s behaviour such as angle of approach to the rotor, strike to final distance (sound can help as a softening sound means there is less energy to impact and louder noise means it is likely to travel further). It is also important to notice that if the ball (especially for a smaller ball) travel path for a specific angle of approach, lets say shallow angle, sometimes the ball will travel up the cone, sometimes the ball will travel at the front part of the fret where it is lower, sometimes it will travel at the longer path to the back of the pocket near number tape where the fret are taller and more likely to stop the ball.

  6. In terms of economics as an AP, one has to balance the speed of the game and advantage and risk of the wheel disappearing/maintanence by the casino casuing bias to weaken or disappear. There is no point playing a wheel with 30% advantage if the game is slow (15spins per hour ), maximum bet is low (50usd per number), wheel is not opened regularly. It is better off to play a wheel with a fast speed (even automatic wheels), normal maximum bet, wheel that is open 24-7. It is also good to walk around casinos with a lot of wheels and have probable casue then to start taking data on numberboards(sort directions of ball travel) and auto machines (usally same direction of ball travel). It is very fast to take data on some wheels as the numberboard shows 200 previous spins.

  7. We have to think logically on how effects of different defects affect the streghth of bias. Usually, we want different defect to work together to stregth the effect of bias on a number or multiple numbers/section. By thinking, we can play in conditioms where we don’t have data for!

Usually, i stay at a casino for 12-16 hours daily. I manage to take some quality data for some wheels which i suspected to have the strongest bias with

  1. Ball size
  2. Rotor speed
  3. Dealer
  4. Air pressure
  5. Direction of ball travel
  6. Strike number
  7. If the ball has any abnormal behavioir striking a pocket/fret, suspected defected pocket/fret.
  8. Suspected cone bias when the ball travels up a section of cone.
  9. Final nunber
  10. Angle approach of the ball to the rotor
  11. If the ball hit multiple frets, note down the sequence.

With some suspected weaker wheels, i can take 10000 spins of data daily by just going around casino, taking picturers of the numbers on numberboards with hidden camera (important to split the ball in 2 directions by using logic, if the rotor is travelling clocwise during payout, the last spin must be anticlockwise, some dealers spin the rotor at exactly the same rotor speed for same direction of rotor).

Those who say you need a team to beat bias wheel, although it is much easier, solo play means you don’t need to create a system which team players can sometimes copy stuff wrong such as noting down the strike number as the final number, etc, many things can go wrong for a newbie team lol. I have fully developed an excel with all the tools i need by using v look up function, index function, count if function, graph function, maths formula include chi square, standard deviations, etc for strike to final number which is basically a better version for laurance scott’s software roulette analyzer and other excel files you can find in books. It is also a combined excel for both bias and vb data taking!

Btw, someone suggested me to use more sophistcates statistics method such as pearson correlation coefficient. It might seem fancy and powerful. However, if you think about it deeply, it comes from the original data you took! Just adding the strike number distance for each individual pocket might be more powerful that that! I could easily compute the pearson correlation forumla into the excel and it can be done automatically, but does it tell you the already enough chi square, standard deviation? I rather observe and gather more quality data such as noticing the behaviour of the ball! Using more sophisticated method is like using a level 3 count vs a level 1 count in blackjack, ev per hour wont increase by 2 folds or even 3 folds but at most 10%! It is better off to find a game with deeper penetration, better rules, or shuffle methods such that you can know the dealer’s hole card or the next card!

Let’s say we have taken 10000 spins of data. We have also pre-profile 200 spins before playing and pick the hot numbers from the 200spins which is within the hot numbers from 10000 spins. Number 0,32,17,34,7,18,1,14, 3, 35 are +ev within the 10000spins. 0,32,7,14 are within the 200 spins.

Now, how to increase advantage? We simply use vb to help to identify the strike number. I am not going into details but a human is capable of doing what an rc can. Using strike to final test, we learned that the optimum final number zone is ±9pockets within the strike number. Lets say the strike zone is predicted to be number 0, we only bet 0,7,32.

If final point is +/- 9 pockets from strike number and that zone is positive - bet on only three pockets is simply - stupid…
The chance to hit into the bias number and not the neighboring maximally can be ahead of well maybe by 5-7%, and if the bias number has an advantage of 25%, those neighboring numbers will also have about 20% and you suggest on them - do not bet…just - ridiculous.

This is a question. What if the bias number originally has 15%advantage for bias and vb tells you to bet on that number too with 20% advantage? Would that not be 44%advantage? Hit rate 1/31 for the original bias number, hit rate 1/30 for vb, 1/(31x30/37)=1/25= 44% edge.

If bet 2 units for the 3 numbers, would the ev not higher (lets say we have a big enough bankroll).

That is not a question, that is more like 2+2 for everyone, who can think logically. With last for you - looks have problems…

Not will be…In your thinking are simply big math problems, if the ball falls in the district where are numbers with some bias and that zone has 20% edge for every number, then the biased number will have, let’s say 23% edge and bet on 23% and ignore 20% is - stupid…

I might be wrong as i didnt calculate covariance. However, you are also wrong as you don’t know the covariance. You are assuming stuff, the ball might be bouncy or not bouncy, in reality, the strike zone let’s say you predicted accurately, but it is impossible to know the angle of the ball, maybe it is direct or ultra low angle who knows. So my answer should be closer to reality.

You also haven’t take into account the cold numbers! It is not 20% for let’s say number 29 which has a hit rate of 1/50, on my wheel, number 29 is lumpy pocket and donate hits to number 7!. So number 29 should be 1/(31x50/37)= 1/42=-14%EV!

This questions should be calculated using conditional probability using bayes’ theroem.

I also strongly suspect that bias and vb are correlated, what i assumed above is they are independent of each other!

Think and play as you want for me that is without difference…

How did you manage to get data for bias?

If you can provide a detailed explanation, it would be great, maybe for different cases of wheels generally.