# Mistakes made in early days of bias wheel play

As a new biased wheel player, i have made countless mistakes, such as wheel choices, betting when the statistical significance is not high enough, correlation of current data is not high to past data, betting ratio for different numbers with different advantage is wrong, betting without getting enough data.

Is there a general number of spins you need to collect before playing a wheel? The answer is it depends on the data of a wheel. For some wheels, 10,000 is sufficient while others you need 30,000+ or even 60,000 spins. In short, the more number that a wheel gives positive advantage and the higher is better, and you will also encounter less swings in your bankroll when playing. It is important to understand the concept of standard deviation when deciding whether you can start playing. I have also encountered mimicking bias where despite the standard deviation is as high as 4s.d.(data showing the wheel had a hit rate of 1/25 or 44%advantage) i had lost money playing it becasue it is physically impossible to have an advantage of 44% with this wheel and that the chisquare at that time was around 78 at 5000 spins, the number contributed to this were composed of many numbers which are just short of 2s.d. and using statistics, 2s.d. means that the number has a probability of 68% that it is biased (you need to subtract 1s.d. off it as this is approximate it using the normal distribution). At the same time, the wheel brand also is physically impossible to have those numbers that is that high advantage (around 20% or 1/30 hit rate) due to the design of the wheel and that defect seen is not significant. In the end, the chi square dropped to only 50 at around 15,000 spins. I was pretty sure it is the same wheel. If i had used the pearson correlation test for this wheel, i would had a red flag when correlating data for the 1st 5000, 2nd 5000 and 3rd 5000 spins as those would have been negative and i would have avoided loosing money.

Luckily, since then, i have read countless books about statistics on roulette and have improved and i have known how to beat wheels. However, understanding statistics is not enough and i am yet to investigate into how baromatic pressure, temperature, etc affect roulette wheels. I have a strong reason to believe that bias on roulette machines (automatic roulette ) can be casued by either the pump that pumps out the air or the motor of the rotot becasue i notice the bias are strengthed when the machine vibrates like crazy as you can literally feel the vibration and the ball just drop to the biased number/section.

I have also “discovered” or learnt from statistics material, computer simulatiom using R programing that 1 number with high advantage is not the key but having more numbers with advantage is way too important. In short, assume a number with advantage of 20% or hit rate with 1/30 in one wheel and a second wheel with 20%advantage on each number of perhaps 5 numbers, with the same risk, you can bet approximately 6 times on a wheel with 5 biased numbers. You would have to bring into a casino 800 units to play 1 number but using the same 800 units, you can now perhaps bet 6 units per spin while maintaing the same risk. Advantage is important but the payout and the probability in winning is also important. Having 5 numbers with hit rate 1/30, the chance of winning each spin is really 1/6. Imagine you are playing the lottery, and that you have a 100%edge, you wouldn’t sell all your houses/cars to bet becasue you will go ruin if you bet 100%of your bankroll becasue the chance of winning a lottery is still tiny.

Statistically speaking, it is impossible to tell whether a mimicking bias from actually bias without taking more data. However, this is partly true. It is absouletely impossible to extract more information on raw data even you use more sophisticated statistical method. A few months earlier, a forum member who claimed to have played roulette for 30 years dmed me and said that I should use more sophisticated statisical tools such as pearson correlation test to match different batches of data. Subsequently, i had listened to his advice and infact read all the books about statistics and include pearson correlation test, emperical standard deviations, theroetical standard deviations, chi square change for new sets of data entered, etc. However, does that means past data showing an advantage means that it will shows an advantage in the furture? The answer is no unless physical conditions in the future are the same as the conditions the data were taken. Past data taken in the past are important but they are lagging indicator.

Physical conditions such as time of the day, moon phase, weather fronts, barometric pressure, etc are often mentioned in books and even laurence scott mentioned that he had won more money in some times of the day and rarely win large amount of money during other times of the day. The same forum member also said air pressure is not important after 200,000 spins of data collection of a wheel. I am not going to disclose the secret but I did have a breakthrough analyzing how physical conditions (quantifiable ones) that affect advantages in vb and bias. A hint is that when vb is in good conditions, bias is also in good conditions. Time is important, but why certain times you have more advantage than others? This is a question you should think deeply.

I also believe that casino has no countermeasurers in the foreseeing future for roulette and we can play for many more years, thanks to the second law of dyanamics meaning things will eventually break down, and that bias will only strengthen as time passes. It is also important to notice that it is impossible to manufacture somrthing perfectly, otherwise no cars will break down.

Most roulette players started out their advantage player’s career by playing blackjack. I was one of them. I have to emphasize that roulette is so different to blackjack. I know that blackjack players would loose an arm to attain let’s say 6% edge every single hand. However, for roulette, it is a little bit difference, as the varaince of the game is determined by the number of positive advantage number there exist on a wheel and each number’s advantage. In order to win money at a higher rate with the same risk, you either need
1.a bigger bankroll
2.a faster game speed.
4. A game will same advantage but the chance of winning is bigger or the payout is smaller (i.e. 5 numbers with 6%edge each is better than 1 number with 6%edge)

Ultimately, how much you can win will depends on the tolerrance of casinos.

There are many rumours about roulette. However, i have discovered that sometimes the easiest/straight forward method might be the best.

Victor Yu used to be a good friend of mine. He and I had different opinions on both bias and vb play and even blackjack. For instance, my approach in blackjack is that

1. Use a simple count like high low (you can be less tired and ev is more if you just play one extra shoe)
2. Avoid using advanced techniques like shuffle tracking as mistakes and errors are not quantifiable.
3. Target games that has shallow pentration/less decks
4. Join teams so that the bankroll is larger

However, his approach is to

1. Use a complicated counting system. (Advantage not increase by a lot but room for human error is increased)
2. Only play in 1 casino (probably had his own reason but in order to be successful, there are things needed to be sacrificed, like the richest man in the world had divorced many times)
3. Shuffle track (might have high advantage but error for mistakes and time played is much shorter as you are more tired. He also said there is less heat but is it really? Or the shuffle tracker is not playing a winning game at all?)

My approach of roulette is

1. Travel to different casinos around the world, especially the big ones which they allow high money being wagered.
2. Invest in hiring people to do the data taking
3. Team up with other advantage player AP. (Willingly to share some of the secrets)
4. Join bankroll with other AP.
5. Try to make more money while there is so much i can do to prevent casino from noticing i am an AP. As long as i profit, being banned is not a problem. You will loose out more worried of gettjng banned and there exisit a risk casino spotting you even if you don’t win big or they just changed the wheel due to the end of service life (something i had encountered)

His approach is

1. Target online wheels (probably been beaten in the past and very hard to have a very profitable wheel)
2. Ask people to pay him to join his roulette team
3. Play moderate unit such that it can last forever.(some books mentioned that griffin agency will hunt you down if you often win big. However, if you want to make more money, one should swtich to targeting a bigger casino that one can’t ban you which is called the wall’s street as mentioned by Edward thorp and Mark Billings. Even if you win small, there isn’t something that would last forever so it is better to make maybe 10million in 1-2 years and retire or use the money to do other stuff. )
4. Keep the roulette information secret (other people are not stupid and can find out one way or another. If you do it this way, people is just curious and work on that. However, if you tell people, peeople will loose their interest very quickly. If you really tell the secret to an intelleginent guy, he of course will keep the secret if it is very profitable. )

Roulette itself is its best cover as who would think an ap would play a game that has 5-10 timss house edge of blackjack! People playing roulette in the casino’s perspective are stupid people anyways, except visual ballistic.

After observing hundred of thousands of roulette spins, i notice that some physical factors might affect the advantage of bias and even shift the bias numbers to its bias number. Most of the time, it is just a random fluctuations. However, the more you play and observe, you will start to notice more, you can even listen to the sound of the ball hitting the rotor and tell the winning number without looking!