Mathematical betting question for the pros

Okay, so after analysing the layout of the wheel, ive devised some interesting betting techniques, however ill need some clarification as to whether or not it would WORK, as well as the advantage over the house needed in order for it to work.

The method is simple, and it works on the european wheel. We bet on 1st 12 and 2nd 12, covering numbers 1 to 24. If you look closely on the roulette wheel, you can see that this bet covers numbers sector 18-8, (excluding number 33 and 31). In total, it covers a sector of 14 numbers, with the omission of 2 numbers, so in total 12 numbers. If we bet on street 28-30 in addition to the 1st and 2nd 12, we have all 14 numbers covered, and if we bet on the six line 28-44, we have 16 numbers covered. However the more numbers we cover, the more times we have to win in a row in order to make a profit, so for now we will stick to the 1st 12 and 2nd 12 bet.

My Question is if i were to bet on the 1st 12 and 2nd 12 after a visual prediction in that sector, what advantage do i need to overcome the house, since with betting on the two 12’s sector, we need to win atleast 3 times in a row to make a profit. Also, with the 2 numbers being ommited, even if the ball does land in the sector, there is still a 14 percent chance it will hit one of the numbers that isnt covered int he sector.

It might not be the answer you are looking for, but I’ll do my best.

I have had experience with a similar strategy on the 00 wheel involving the 2nd dozen or the 7/10 and 25/28 streets. In a nutshell the idea was to have 12 total numbers covered with 2 opposite sectors of 12 numbers with half the numbers in each sector covered, or 2 opposite sectors of 6 numbers with all the numbers covered. Sounds good right? I thought so too! At least on paper anyway. I mean, I’m at the worst I’m a 50/50 coin flip if I only bet when my visual prediction predicts a hit in of my sectors and I’m getting 2:1 odds on the payout! HOW CAN I LOSE? Well, I’ll tell you.

I was basically doing the exact same thing you were with one real exception. I was never betting more than 12 numbers. You on the other hand are betting 24 to cover 12. Which means you are in a much tougher position than my idea on the American wheel. On paper is sounds like a good idea but in practice it is something much different. Suppose you are watching a spin and you see that the ball is likely to hit your sector but it will hit on the last or 2nd last pocket of your sector. Do you bet anyway and risk the ball rolling out of your sector? Or do you hold out for a better prediction? What if you predict a hit near the front of your sector but are not fully sure the ball will have the energy to make it all the way into the sector? Do you bet or wait? Do you only bet when you think it will hit smack dab in the middle of the sector? You still have the 31 and 33 that can hurt you and you can always take a bad bounce. What happens when you sit back on all the questionable predictions and only bet on the “Safe” ones? How many bad bounces and unlucky drops, rolls will had to happen on your good predictions before you start wanting to bet the questionable predictions that seem to be hitting like clockwork? The whole notion is not quite as easy as it sounds. Not to mention you are betting a bunch of other numbers that are on the other side of the wheel where you are NOT expecting the ball to be. In short, the random fluctuations you will experience doing something like this will chew up your bankroll so fast because you are betting so many numbers (24) each spin.

Would it not make more sense to bet fewer numbers centered around your prediction? Rather than predicting around a preexisting sector, why not create a sector around your prediction? The sector will always be centered around your PREDICTION. This can only help with your accuracy and development as a player. Plus it is also a lot cheaper and easier on your bankroll/blood pressure. Like I said, I have tried something similar betting 12 numbers (thus requiring less of a BR than you would) and I found that the reality of putting it into practice is not worth the effort/stress. Stick to 3-7 numbers around your prediction. You be able to play many more spins and limit your losses as well as increase your wins. Playing a 3-5 number sector is also a lot easier to tell when you are playing badly and pick up on mistakes you make. Just my thoughts.

yes ;D

Good post Davey.

I certainly like betting fewer numbers as well.