How much roulette not advantage player should lose in a year?
For this, I used MyRulet Advantage Roulette Simulator (MARS)
and set it as follow.
Hit rate without any advantage is 37
Let’s say playing ten pockets each spin.
I am playing 100 spins each visit.
Playing once a week makes it 52 trials,
and bringing to casino 200 units each time.
That makes the player place 10 x 100 x 52 = 52,000 on the table.
Because the casino has one pocket advantage in percentage, it gives them a 2.7% advantage.
52000 x 0.027 = 1,404
It means the player should lose 1404 units in a year. If the chip is $10 that would be $14,404.
I run the simulator many times, I mostly get values to lose around that amount, but sometimes it shows you lose of 3000 units or even wins of 200-300 units.
Most likely, all results are within a standard deviation of 95% chance.
Losing $14k in a year is not much, and the calculator showed the player hardly would lose more than 30k.
On the other side if roulette advantage player with his predictions can, for example, eliminate five numbers and play with advantage 1 : 32 on the wheel, it would make him turn it to positive average by 7,020 units or in $70,020.
When I simulate it in the program, the results deviate in between $45 - $75k.
So how to win 2 million in 2 days?
For this, we would need to play $200 a unit, ten units per spin totalling $2,000; play for 500 spins each day. I also had to change the hit rate too much higher as 1:18, which is about a 100% advantage over the casino.
If the advantage is only 1:30 it would require to bet ~$10k per spin, but results wouldn’t be very certain as in this case;
The first day was lost to 176 units or $176k.