# High Variance

High Variance

Many assume as me that we have to cover numbers close to each other with in the high probability area, with peaks.
This brings me towards Laruance and hes talk about High/Low scatter.

Does some have some real experience regarding this and would share some taught about it.
I try a few sessions witch end with success - but due to higher fluctuation.

Betting on the top of the peak of course with not a lot of numbers. Simply because as time goes by, peak is shifting, primary reason: air pressure, and contrary to what the pig said, it is not a question of day, but hours, so if you stay 8 hours at the table, expect the peak to have moved. Betting 18 numbers like fat cow said is suicide because you can be sure that you will be betting on negative edge pockets, since peak is moving and in a large sector, extremities have a low positive edge, plus you cannot distinguish luck from a real edge betting such large sector.

First work is to establish the scatter. Locate the top of the peak. i.e after 100 spins for a direction. From this point, you continue to chart and locate the new location of the peak (if any). You need to count the spins charted and also the time. If the peak shifted for example 5 pockets clockwise in one hour, you can anticipate for the next hour the same shift, this way you bet the peak completely by centering the location

“If the peak shifted for example 5 pockets clockwise in one hour, you can anticipate for the next hour the same shift”.
Don’t seem me correct because if so pits it would want to say that initial conditions change in continuous and constant way.I believe that there can be a limit to the change and that this is not so linear and that rather can return “back.”

No, during a play, the peak on modern wheels and modern conditions constantly shift left or right, and in term of hours (what everybody faces), the peak won’t come back to the initial point, it will take much longer.

The shift of the peak is due to the ball not hiting the same diamonds(or parts) along the air pressure constantly changing over time.

To be honest, i only rarely makes those scatter charts anymore. If you do the tracking and is using Laurances software all you have to know is the reading number and the wheel speed. If the air pressure changes, you obviously book that too, but when you analyse afterwards you can choose all air pressures and see if you get a good model, if not, you can start analysing with different air pressure categories. The scatter chart is just a deeper analysis, but is really not nessecary, if you book and analyse with that software.

How you determinate if something is changed or if it is just a coincidence?

If you make ball jumps chart for 300 spins to be reasonably accurate. While you play 50 spins just by chance it may look as the ball stopping 5 pockets differently.

While you play how long it takes you to spot the change?

I do not believe air pressure during play will make any difference but I do believe many other factors may. Table wobble due to various pressure applied by players, vibration, dirt. Especially with earlier predictions.

Well, i don`t know if you are familiar with the software, after the analyse you can from that determine what the expectation for the next say 50 bets would be or whatever time/spin amount your time allows you. If something changes within those 50 spins, i obviously won`t meet the expectation, but wether it is coincidence or not i can`t say precisely within such a short spin sample anyway. Before a wheel is tracked, i do know which diamonds has a higher frequency, i also know the air pressure. If the DD changes along with the air pressure, along with the expected hit rate, it might be a good idea to stop and do some more tracking. 50 spins in a scatterdiagram, won`t nessecaryly tell you what is going on anyway.

Well, i don`t know if you are familiar with the software, after the analyse you can from that determine what the expectation for the next say 50 bets would be or whatever time/spin amount your time allows you.

For any software to work it needs input to produce an output. I assume it takes x amount of spins and assumes nothing will change. Then it can only output a static advantage area.

50 spins in a scatterdiagram, won`t nessecaryly tell you what is going on anyway.

So how can the player respond to changes?

Thats true, but we are talking about variances within a short spin sample, and its not forbidden to look in the wheel to see wether the outcome was a result of a backspring or a roller or a coincidential 1.5 wheel bounce. Personally i responds if the drop zone changes because different diamonds might produce different scatters. I get alerted if the air pressure changes and will monitor carefully which diamonds are struck, compared to what i anticipate. I won`t start changing reading point or change sector size because 2 - 4 spins suddenly behaves funny. If a scatter diagram should make sense, it should be done for each diamond in the drop zone. I did that on some Abbiatis last summer. They weren`t self levelling because the drop zones remained almost static within roughly a little more than 1/2 a wheel.

The frequency of spins is an important factor. If the table is full, it may take more than 1 hour to track 50 spins (25 for each directions).
Playing alone at the table, 50 spins can be spun in 15 minutes. Therefore you are much less exposed to condition changes when you are alone. But playing alone you are less confortable because all eyes are directed towards you.
There are pros and cons, but if you want your analysis matching current conditions, you are best to play alone with a free table.