Computer devices scams
Inspired by the book ‘The Eudaemonic Pie’ by author Thomas A. Bass, still a couple of computer device sellers are openly operating, advertising and selling on the internet. They all set up sales websites and are regularly present in gambling forums to hustle for customers. In several occasions they were exposed in gambling forums for having posted positive feedback about their own computers but under different nicknames to increase sales. Dissatisfied customers were barked at by one developer when they came forward in the Gambler Glen Forum.
It is rather amusing (and bad for business) computer device sellers do not get along with each other, obviously because they are competitors in the same small market (the customers who would fork out to buy such an expensive device).
The very fact sellers spend an awful lot of time in forums debating their computers is probably the best proof it isn’t likely to work in a real casino environment, otherwise why would one even bother going into endless discussions, but rather travel international casinos in stead to use the device to one’s own benefit instead of spending time selling it. One seller also refused to have his computer seriously tested by researchers for a tv-show because he didn’t want to expose himself. Kind of rare for a person who even sets up a website to promote it’s very existence.
It is however a fact that in previous decennia working computer devices have been reported to successfully predict outcomes with a larger probability than expected, but unfortunately too few, missing or opposing details are know (amount of played spins, initial bankroll, hit-miss ratio, mathematical probability of winning-losing within the time played) to do any serious research. Successful attempts are few and only scarcely documented when it comes to real environment appliance. Of course the public doesn’t get noticed of the attempts which failed due to security detection or failure of the device.
The introduction of the new low profile wheels and scalloped pockets, also significantly increased the amount and variation of scatter which can be expected. Depending on the velocity, the material and weight of the ball and the angle of impact, a ball can scatter, wobble out of the pocket (scalloped pockets) or drop dead.
A common scam is to provide in a live or a DVD demonstration on a very specifically chosen or deep pocket wheel in a home environment. The wheel used for the demonstration could be severely biased or tilted which could only be determined by serious statistical testing by the purchaser BEFORE the seller demonstrates the use of his machine on this particular wheel.
If the wheel is biased (some numbers will naturally appear more than others due to wear of the wheel) or tilted (resulting in the ball leaving the upper track at the same spot, as such making the prediction less hard than on a properly balanced set up wheel which you can expect to find in casinos) and the seller is aware of this, the impression is given to the purchaser the machine is predicting the outcomes, while it’s actually the principal of bias that is at work. One seller even offered (of course paid) betting advice based on a 300 spin file supplied by the customers. This is a scam because a 300 spin file is FAR too short to analyze or advice anything statistically credible what so ever.
Of course, if the seller is convinced of the merits of his machine you as a customer should always demand a demonstration by the seller in a real casino environment. If the seller agrees, pick the wheel yourself when entering the casino. And here comes the first hurdle: the use of such devices is explicitly illegal in the far majority of the venues; as a result detection will lead to confiscation and possible law suite. The correct use of computer devices needs a player who is standing relatively stable and close to the wheel itself, not noticeably tracking the wheel and accurately introducing the data in the hidden device. Bets can only be laid down after the dealer has launched the ball in the very last seconds before the ‘no more bets’ call, because the device needs time to measure the velocity speed of each individual spin. Remember, at all times you are in a heavily security scanned area while pulling this one off. Casino security is aware of the existence of such devices and as such a player who is constantly standing in the same spot, with an earpiece or nervously reaching into his pockets, each time laying down the bets on the very last moment will draw attention of security in no time. If the time is too short between the launch of the ball and the ‘no more bets’ announcement, the prognosis will not be accurate enough. And, when you are dealing with a low profile wheel with scalloped pockets a computer can NEVER predict exactly where the ball might hit a certain pocket resulting in more or less scatter on impact which will downsize the hit-miss ratio. This is the second reason why computer device developers rather like to make money by selling the device, in stead of using it themselves: of course the risk is far less if you make money by selling such a device rather than using it yourself in a real casino environment.
When you would still feel inclined to research this possibility, before cashing out (expensively) ALWAYS demand a demonstration in a real live environment on a wheel you pick yourself, and do never forget it would be impossible in the short run to determine if the seller really has an edge or not. Never pay cash in hand. Always compare the amount of ‘predicted’ hits with the sequential and binomial probability figures. For instance in the short, nor in the medium term achieving a ‘predicted’ hit of one out of 23 doesn’t prove anything what so ever. If you play a certain section or numbers again and again you may well achieve such a result also by chance. In the short run one could only state the obtained result is more or less probable, but even less likely outcomes can occur randomly in the short run. Remember, even when you would not use such a machine, if you lay down your bets on several numbers at each spin, mathematically you’ll get it right sooner or later: a machine is only ‘working’ if it would allow to significantly and consistently achieve a better prediction in outcomes in the long run than only using plain probability theory.
Some customers who light hearted bought such a machine only find out the hard way it was near impossible to use in a real environment or got caught in the process. Of course sellers will try and seduce you by suggesting consistent profit in the future, or will refer to the successful use in a real environment in a few cases of which important details are unknown (initial bankroll amount, amount of bets placed, probability vs ‘predicted’ results, …).
Again, the most reasonable question is: if the machine was working why would a seller invest a large amount of energy setting up a website and spend time seeking customers instead of using it himself and playing himself to riches so he wouldn’t be financially dependent on selling. The fact is: computer device roulette sellers know very well casino security is very strict so it’s far less risky to make money selling such a device rather than using it.
