[quote=“zen101, post:52, topic:236”]Hi Kelly and co
Thanks for this post, I have a question about Chi square and standard deviation.
I have manually recorded spins on a wheel that seemed suspicious at a local casino, It seems according to RX that I may be correct… My only worry is that 284 spins is not enough… The dealers here are SOOO slow… and idd be lucky to record 30 spins a hour. :’(
Ive been flat betting single units on the numbers that have a standard deviation greater than 3 only.
I guess im up a little bit, about 10 units per hour at this rate,
Should I be more aggressive?
Kind Regards
/L[/quote]
You are correct in the assumption that 284 spins isn’t enough. I have tracked a number of wheels that looked very promising in the first few hundred spins only the have the next few hundred flatten them right out. The reality of the situation is bias wheel play is not as straight forward as you might think. It’s not hundreds of spins that you need. It’s thousands. That’s the problem. It takes an awful lot of time and energy to track a wheel, especially by yourself. The amount of spins you track also is dependent on how strong the bias is.
Think of this example, suppose you had a wheel where one pocket was drilled down a full inch deeper than all the rest of the pockets. This would mean that the ball would almost never bounce out of such a pocket. How long do you think it would take for such a bias to manifest itself? Probably not very long. After a 1000 spins you would be licking your chops. Suppose you have another wheel where the only defect is a slightly angled pocket insert or fret. It would take significantly longer to confirm that kind of bias because it is significantly weaker. Even though there are biased wheels out there (allegedly) they are so difficult to find because they are HARD to find. How many wheels could you track a few thousand spins on by yourself, only to find them as nothing more than random wheels, before you would completely lose patience and give up? For me, the answer is two. lol
I am not trying to talk you out of it. I am just trying to tell you that if you play the strong numbers early with only small data samples, the odds that the numbers are simply random fluctuations are by far more likely than the odds that they are actually biased. The larger the sample becomes, the more those odds reverse themselves.
I wish there was a simple shortcut for biased wheel play, but unfortunately the only sure formula is to track about 10K+ spins and then see what’s going on. It would amaze you how different 100 spin samples will differ from one another. It will amaze you even further how different 1000 spin samples can differ from one another.
Most people who play biased wheels have a team of people to help split up the workload.
DO NOT BE MORE AGGRESSIVE! Not until you are damn sure that the wheel is good.
Good luck!
P.S. Try not to post the same thing in different threads. It clogs up the forum.