Bias by Snowman


#1

This is one method by Snowman.

Ok, here’s the quick script for winning using biased wheel play if you aren’t trained to quickly defect spot the biased wheels. For starters, forget everything you have ever read about or know about biased wheels, because most of it is wrong.

If you follow these procedures, you will win most of the time. The problem is, most people can’t stay focused long enough to do it. If you can stay focused, then you can win some hefty amounts of money.

If you can’t defect spot the wheels, then simply track everything in sight. This is a great way to get your feet wet. Start with low stakes only. Playing like this at higher units will occasionally get you banned. This is only an entry level method. If you want to move to the next level, you have to learn how to defect spot the biased wheels, otherwise you will likely waste to much time and money tracking random wheels. Defect spotting enables you to quickly determine which wheels are biased and which wheels to ignore.

  1. Track every wheel in sight to 7,500 spins. Have friends and family help you track, or hire help and run it like a business. ( log any identifying markings on each wheel so that you can identify it and track it’s movement around the casino.)

  2. Play every number that is in excess of 2 standard deviations using the modified Kelly Criterion. If you don’t have at least one number above 3 or more standard deviations, and at least one or two others above 2 standard deviations, then move on to the next wheel. If you have several numbers close to or slightly above 2. standard deviations, then pick the top seven.

Do not bet more than 10 numbers. The more numbers you bet, the greater the random fluctuations will likely be. Betting more numbers will increase the severity of random draw downs during play. You can’t win if you’re betting half the wheel!! You don’t have to be on every biased number. The numbers on which you bet just have to be biased.

  1. The day of play, pre-track your wheel for 350+ spins to correlate with previous data prior to play. Peak pick your play day. Any number that appeared bias prior to play that is not close to, or above expectation prior to play should be dropped. If the data doesn’t correlate, try another day.

  2. If you want the strongest possible chance of a positive outcome, then play for nothing less than 12-16 hours straight. You have to allow for a significantly large enough volume of spins for your edge to dominate the random fluctuations of the game. Simply betting for an hour or two isn’t sufficient. ( For example: + or - 2.5 x square root of N represents your ave. fluctuations most of the time. N= the total number of spins played) Overtime you will learn when favorable playing conditions are occurring or fading and you will want to adjust your playing style accordingly.

Bet using the following bank to bet calculation:

Edge/expectancy x the chance of losing your bet at each spin. Multiply this amount times your bankroll each spin. (I added the additional step to the Kelly criterion to reduce the over betting that can occur when the player is betting on several biased numbers).

For example: if your edge is 15% on five biased numbers, then you would calculate your bet as follows.

.15 x (35-4)/5 x 31/36= .02

If your starting bankroll is 500 units, then multiply the .02 times 500, then divide by 5 to determine how much to bet on each of your five numbers. 500x.02/5= 2 units on each of your five biased numbers.

I’ve just told you how to make a fortune at the game. Will anyone try it? Not likely. 99.999% of the people lack the discipline and the focus to win. Most people will be distracted by the WDL’s of the forums. If anyone does have the focus, then email me your data, and I’ll run it through the different statistical tests for you for free. If you are into tracking wheels and want to take things to the next level, then feel free to email me. I enjoy discretely talking about the wheels and exploiting the different design flaws.

Based on my experience, here is a quick note on sectors: Most individual biased numbers are part of a larger biased section. Many of the individual biased numbers that appear to be biased, are what we call temporary local biased numbers (TLB) within a true biased section.

When playing a biased section, it is often more effective to play in between wheel cleaning cycles when the TLB numbers are strongest. This will enable you to play fewer numbers within the overall biased section at a higher edge. Playing to many numbers within a biased section will exacerbate any random drawdowns that you may experience during biased wheel play. Since wheels are most frequently cleaned just before the weekend, look for your TLBs within biased sections on a Wed. or Thursday. On Fridays and Saturdays, look for the TLB to weaken and to spread over the larger biased section.

A quick note on mirror bias: It’s not your imagination, it occurs. Because of the many different factors that cause bias, you will frequently find patterns to the bias on the wheel. The type of pattern can sometimes quickly indicate the wheel defect. You may find a bias that appears every five pockets on some wheels, or one that appears 20 pockets away on another wheel. Some patterns are even just mere reflections of a bias defect that may exist on the opposite side of a wheel head.

I attach the topic where Snowman and Kelly speak about bias from the past at GG.


Bias topic Gamblers Glen.pdf (110 KB)


#2

My thinking and idea is about how to deal with random fluctuation using the method above.
I not sure if this is a bad or good idea or on the right track.

But you have to deal with random fluctuation, so how do we tackle the situation.
Snowman mention that you will recognize the sequential fluctuation and could act upon that.

This is the idea …

The main idea is using the Median value and Skips.

With this example we use a ordinary number that is not bias, just to give you the overall idea.

Roulette Number: 6 (or could be bias sector)
Hits -> 24 times
Skips -> 51 43 104 1 2 29 37 77 79 15 130 15 12 7 11 131 11 129 8 16 20 14 21 12

  • Sorted Skips: 1 2 7 8 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 20 21 29 37 43 51 77 79 104 129 130 131

  • Median Skip: 16

So number 6 hit 24 times.
The first row - called Skips - show ( to the right to left) the skips of number 6. Number 6 show. After 12 spins, show again, after 21 spins show again, after 14 spins number 6 show again etc. The last three skips of number 6 are 104, 43, 51.

The second row - called - Sorted Skips show all the skips for a particular number in ascending order.

The three row called - Median Skip - show the median value of the sorted skips. The median is the middle value of a string of numbers. In this example the median value of skips is 16.

It should not be confused with the average.
So the Median Value is the middle value in a string of values.

Therefore 50% of the values are within the median or less, and 50% are within the median or more. In my example of number 6, the skip median is 16. That mean that 50% of the time number 6 hits within a skip of 16 or less.

Now if in the string of skips of number 6 I mark :

with sign (+) I mark if the skip is greater than median value of skips
with sign (-) I mark if the skip is small than median value of skips
with sign (=) I mark if the skip is equal with median value of skips

I obtain this :

51 43 104 1 2 29 37 77 79 15 130 15 12 7 11 131 11 129 8 16 20 14 21 12

                                      • = - - - -
  1. THE STRATEGY :

The overall idea is to identify the random fluctuation median value … if possible …
Also a way to identify if the wheels had been maintained during cycle periods …

Well with this idea i at least get a visual over the hit ratio and frequency of hit ratio.
I have the strength test simulation, but that sheet only show a graph with values and is not the same thing.


#3

Maybe Kelly, Toby or Snowman have a better idea charting by hand with signs to get a visual …

Cheers


#4

Lucky, a great Snow´s post made some years ago, he showed a good will to teach how to win.

Both biased and random numbers suffer their fluctuation of the 6 sigma(+ - 3 standard deviatioms) Some defects(or all) depends on the location the ball drops to touch certain materials. We must have patience, money and confidence, and people who know the thing you should know to attack biased wheels.

Trying to study skips to act after is a fallacy, I´ve never found any advantage in waiting for skips or repetitions. I do not say it is imposible to achieve, I failed in findinding a way to use them(and I spent years)

We only know that in the end of the day/week/month our sellected numbers will hit better that 1/36. We supose that we have already found a playable biased Wheel.

I read someone(I cannot remember who) asked me once about using what you said about the median skip. I guess it does not work to add edge to our work.

Fluctuations are really bad when your edge is lower than 5% playing from 9 to 12 numbers.

About your strategy: I did not catch wether your purpose is to play after some strait + or after some strait -

Anyway, for me is the same.

Eventhough, I should play after short skips because there could be a hidden condition(unknown for us) that Works for or against our advantage.

warm regards
toby


#5

what a great info! thanks guys


#6
Sorted Skips: 1 2 7 8 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 20 21 29 37 43 51 77 79 104 129 130 131

There are many mathematical ways how to play bias. Say from this order from Lucky is easy to see that we can simply stop after 22 loss and not bet more, because benefit which we will get from hit will be less that we will pay for bets. Playing this way we will bet 399 chips and at the end we will have 576 = 44% on equal place. To count how many times we can bet and from which number our risk overcome possible gain is also very important in play. Here is only one number and gap between hit in 22 possition from previous hit and hit in 30 is very big so easy to notice, when we play more numbers row is more dense and not so easy to notice point after which better is not bet, but for players which try bias i will sugest to count this parameter - usually it will save some money for you.


#7

I am not sure , but the signs + and - show the hit ratio and fluctuation , so i think its a good charting method to check the strength using the median value ,
We can test this with number 17 and i will chart the method with median and skips to see how it looks like with a real bias number …

Will get back soon …


#8

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Median 28

=

That is a pretty good charting method using median, but is hard to figure our a sequential betting and skip fluctuation.
Assume we start after a win or a positive and continue if we lose once more … just experimental …

WLWLL
WWWWLWWWW

This would be the bias sequential patterns:

= -


#9

In your example was made 999 spins averidge hit is 27 , number 6 will hit 24 times and it ended on hit, what is not very corect in calculattions. But still when we corect choose play way we can get 44% edge if we look from back till begining. So we could make money on not biased number and even more that number have about -0.6 STD. With this example i want to show that are many situattions when we can win playing on really not biased numbers. look to median value is good , but we must look not only to median of all skips , but we must divide raw to two parts and look for median independently and what we will see then + part have median 11.5 but - part have median 68. What says that is that there are big risk and that number fall not stable. So we must look not only to numbers which are biased but also notice numbers which fals stable duering some time period. Now what will be if we have realy biased number but which have also very big skip numbers. That tels for us that this number is biased only on some condittions - that can be wheel speed direction or even something like air pressure and when we find such numbers we must look carefully when they fall.


#10
Median 28
From that column what you posted median is 20 - not 28

#11

[quote=“bebediktus, post:10, topic:976”]

Median 28

From that column what you posted median is 20 - not 28[/quote]

I got 57 points/values and i split them in the middle and get 28,5 … how do you calculate the value points ? , i just split them in the middle …


#12
I got 57 points/values and i split them in the middle and get 28,5 ... how do you calculate the value points ? ,,, i just split them in the middle ...
Yes split in the middle 57/2=28/29 28th is17 29 is 20

#13

True i use the value i got and not the figure of the value points , stupid by me ,


#14

And now on this number if we split and looks for possitive meddian we get 5 and on negative median we get 33.5 so this number have 5/17/33.5. Number 6 have 11/16/64 - feel diference ?


#15

Random fluctuations are bigger than most people imagine. Observations are sometimes more important than number streams.