Exerts from the Team Play manual

Advanced roulette play
#1

This is an overall guideline to a setup for organized team play. There are several pages besides what i published here, but it remains in my safe. Just giving you some thoughts you might wanna work with. The setup is based on a team already operating in Europe. I have only given what i have, to still keep the team safe and operational.

Usually team play aren`t really for VB players, but there are some obvious advantages. First of all, Roulette AP is a game of patience. When you are tracking, the time can be really really long. Hers a few advantages:

1. A wheel can be tracked constantly by working in shifts.
2. A wheel can be played in shifts, for maximum gain.
3. The bankroll is bigger and the payout better.
4. Tracking can be continued with a tracker at the same time a BP is hitting the table. (2 people) So the BP don`t have to take notes.

[ul][]Key names within the team
[]Working area, geograficly
[]Member tests. To protect the team bankroll, members should once in a while be skill testet under controlled conditions.
[]List of Stats: Team members are rated as to their winnings
[]On every casino trip, dealers are categoriced in A, B, C and D (unplayable)
[]Backroom MO if one of the team members is being backroomed.
[]Betting system for team members at certain conditions within a dealer shift.
[]General policy and procedures
[]Team confidentiality agreement
[]Quality Assurance- each team member will be asked to sign a commitment contract
[]Skill requirements for different level of team members
[]Acceptable and non-acceptable extra curricular activities for team members
[]Penalties for policy violations
[]Keying Guidelines
[]Betting Guidelines
[]Accounting, security and quality control
[]Pay rates for team members
[]Scouting work sheet-each casino is scouted to perfection before a team plays the casino
[*]How to scout Key Games-Includes everything from

  1. Ball types and scatter patterns
  2. Wheel types
  3. Tilt degree
  4. Visual Bias
  5. Conditions of +4.5 SD playable
  6. Calling of NMB
  7. Calc. of ROR and bankroll versus possible gain
    []Daily updates on the wheel data
    [    ]Possibly recalculation of data if maintenence has taken place.
    []Exit point should be fixed, so comparison of data is possible
    [    ] Thumper or other external device might be a possible “Must” to ensure equal exits in between members.
    []Projecting the possible outcome of an average session, given the specific wheel data and NMB conditions.
    [    ]Payout rates or Money target ? (head for 50K win and split the bank and start out again)
    []1, 2 or 3 Month sessions before split of bank
    [    ]Kelly Betting to the extent where the chip handling is still “handy”
    []General Information
    [    ]General Guidelines[/ul]
Simulation of Team Play of 4 tables of 150 spins totals 600 spins pr. day.

Imagine a 8 man team where 4 played and 4 were tracking and were releaving the player so no one played more than 1 hour at a time. Could maybe be done with 6 players. Ofcourse also only by 4 players, but the benefits of someone standing “above” the game watching and tracking without getting emotional involved would be gone then. Tracking and MO of the wheel should ofcourse be done before play, but the purpose of the extra tracker when the BP is on, is to have the BP play freely without any notes, and let the tracker step in and stop the play if something looks fishy compared to the previous tracking results which is the base for the BPer.

Basieux has made a simulation of a play where 6 numbers are played with a total edge of 10.36% after tips. (35p - 6 =35(7/37) - 6 = 10.36%

The simulation is done as a simultanously play on 4 tables 50 spins 30 days in a row. 3 simulations of 50 spins on 4 tables is done. You can`t see each tables results, i can in the simulation but so far this is as deep i will go. I have then taken the liberty to simply call sim 1 for the first 50 spins. Sim 2 is 51 - 100 and sim 3 is 101 - 150.

I think we get the picture though. Looks like this:

If you look at the coloumn “Accumulation pr day” you will see that there are 3 days that finished with a loss despite a “fixed” edge (simulated edge). Interesting is also that day 30 actually had a loss over 400 units. And that the 4 tables after 50 spins were down -220 units.

The average win pr. day is +371 units. Imagine we split them in 8 parts = 46 units. Imagine expenses is 200 euro pr. day and you wanna bring back 600 euro pr day for the household.

The calc is then: 800/46 = 17.39 Euro

So the base bet would be around 20 Euro as an absoloute base. To cover scouting costs, it would probably be closer to 25 - 30 Euro pr base unit. With winnings of 11140 units pr months we are talking a winning budget of 30 x 11140 = 334.200 Euro

What would the bankroll be ? Well a risk of ruin of 1% and a 10% edge gives you the number 733 Units. Pr player. Roughly 3000 units of 30 euros = 90.000 Euros/8players = 11.250 Euro for each player. Now, there is an effect when playing simultanously on 4 tables. According to Basieux we don`t need the double capital when playing 2 tables simoultanously but only SQR2 = 1.41 the capital for 1 table. If we transfer this to our play we will have SQR4 = 2 x the capital (733). = 2 x 733 = 1466 units.

So basicly we need 1466 x 30 = 43980 Euro/8 players 5497 Euros. With Kelly betting and the possibility of degression to 25 and 20 euros, it might be enough.

#2

Thanks, that is very good post.

Total turnover 85,500 euros/month per table.
It is basically playing ~100 euros per spin to make 1400 e profit per 150 spins /day.

I can make it in 50 spins; I play only 50-60 spins per day.
The problem is that in 150:50=3 in 3 attempts I’ll make it 2 times and thirty time lose so on the end it comes to same. 50 spins is not enough to get properly set every time.

Winning here 700 units in 50-60 spins is not really 10 times more since I played 7-8 times more units, but less valued per spin. It gives me better control to use more units so I can distribute them more flexibly. Probably 30 % of units per spin is not advantage play since it is played before then dealer spins.

If after B point negative slope was a bit shorter last winning pick would be probably 400 units higher. On the end I stopped because of 2 reasons, I already played to long and because I did not want to get frustration of another negative slope as happened at~ 65 spin.

#3

The calculation is an average of 10% on all spins. To get there, there will be several sessions with +20 and +40% edges to cover the negatives, and the simulation also shows that. Played as a team i don`t think it is realistic to get above an average of 10% and even then, the data streams should be monitored carefully. There are many small sessions where there will be interference and noise from gamblers and dealers and pit bosses where ptential wins can turn into a badly placed bet or even a wrong bet because of the eye sight to the wheel were interrupted. For a 4 man team on a 120 session streak there will be plenty of this. The Kelly betting is vital part of the team play because when 4 people are having losing streaks, there must be a strict protection of the team bankroll by degressing the bet size.

Apart from that it will be an advantage to have a senior player monitor the other players without actually playing. He is not as emotionally involved as the player.

#4

It is as a script of ISO- standards and procedures.

When I think back i used similar processes on many parts of work.

Maybe I should do the same for roulette.
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

#5
What would the bankroll be ? Well a risk of ruin of 1% and a 10% edge gives you the number 733 Units. Pr player.
That's a VERY large number!

733 times each marker value?
Or times the sum of 6 marker values bet each time?
What is a good formula for calculating risk of ruin?

I’m surprised at those numbers, but then again probability is all couter intuitive, so I shouldn’t be surprised by being surprised. Maybe 1% risk of ruin is a bit too conservative. When theoretical probabilities get that small, they tend to drown in the noise of unforeseen external events. Like it can’t be far from 1% probability that 1 out of 8 team members have an accident when on the way to the casino.

Because such “external noise” can’t be reduced (by money management), at such micro levels of risk, the marginal advantage of reducing system risk is suddenly reduced. Even with 0% risk of ruin in this system, you might suffer 1% risk of get ruined by getting robbed when leaving the casino, or by new legislation. For example, Large Term Capital was a billion dollar hedge fund that had extremely good risk management. However in the late 1990s Russian political decisions of partial default caused their total ruin. That decision was an externality outside of their models of prices on financial markets.

1% risk of ruin is someting one only can dream of. Maybe 4% would be a more practical tradeoff between the risks one can manage, and those we cannot. But it all depends on the time frame, doesn’t it. 1% is less than a year in our lifes and well worth sacrificing for an average of 10% return on all the money you can put on a table, in my view.

Sorry for going OT from the team aspect. Teaming up might give huge synergies in several ways. Just by being able to gamble on more than one table simultaneously, risks should be quite reduced due to zero correlation. And it gives a check on the psychological errors which each individual is a victim of. Very interesting points you have there, Kelly!

#6

but 150 spins x 5 units is 750 units

733 is very close to 750

it means for 147 spins losing every time.
Odds for that should be smaler then 1%

#7

Here’s a very good discussion of ROR - http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/riskofruin.shtml

Also, google on “risk of ruin” - lots of good articles can be found.

Bryan